SARAH BULLEN, Johannesburg | Thursday 8.30pm.
SOUTH Africa’s trade balance recovered to a R146-million surplus in September, after a deficit of almost R3-billion in August, according to figures by the South African Revenue Services on Thursday. The balance was boosted in South Africa’s favour by a 7,5% drop in imports, combined with a 16,8% rise in exports over the month.
Rand Merchant Bank economist Julia Roy said that “although it is a relief that the monthly trade balance returned to surplus in September after August’s big R3-billion deficit, at R146-million the surplus was disappointingly small.” Roy said that on a cumulative basis, however, import growth at 15% continued to outpace export growth at 11%. As a result, the cumulative trade balance remained in deficit in September at R111-million, a slight improvement from the R257-million cumulative deficit recorded in August.
On the export side, the largest increases were recorded by the categories live animals and animal products, wood and wood products, prepared foodstuffs and beverages, pulp and paper, and vehicles and aircraft. For exports, five categories recorded declines over the previous year, namely textiles, hides and skins, footwear, precious and semi-precious stones, and optical and other equipment. On the import side, the largest increases were recorded in vehicles and aircraft, manufactured items, machinery and equipment as well as base metals.
ING Barings chief economist Kristina Quattek said that the fact the world growth has been revised down to 2% this year, and is expected to slow further next year, does not bode well for accelerated export growth for South Africa.