Chris Gordon
Four years after the Lusaka accords officially ended Angola’s civil war, the internationally brokered peace process has come unglued. Renewed war seems almost certain.
United Nations secretary general Kofi Annan told the Security Council last week that prospects for reactivating the peace process in Angola look bleak. The political and military situation continues to deteriorate, according to a UN representative in New York.
The UN confirmed reports of heavy fighting last week at Alta Hama, near the strategic central highlands city of Huambo. Ironically, the Angolan government’s recapture of Huambo from Jonas Savimbi’s rebel Unita brought about the signing of the Lusaka peace deal in November 1994.
Another signal of a potential war is the approval by the Angolan Council of Ministers of compulsory drafting of youths between the ages of 17 and 19 into the army. For months, both sides have been increasing their armies through forced recruitment.
However, the final political step towards war is not yet in place. The government must formally declare the Lusaka peace accords no longer govern relations with Unita.
The peace process has been in slow motion collapse since last May when Unita forces began attacks on UN positions. Fighting intensified in August as Unita captured much of the Uige and Malange provinces and began major troop movements in the diamond provinces of the Lundas.
A government offensive in the north has successfully reduced Unita’s control there, according to reports from the region. Now, the government is preparing for a major offensive against Savimbi.
A build-up of government troops, particularly around Huambo, began two weeks ago. But the expected counter- offensive against the Unita strongholds of Bailondo and Andulo has not been launched.
Eleven remaining observers are waiting to be pulled out by the UN. But Unita is holding them, saying an airport runway needs repairs, and they cannot leave. The UN denies its personnel are being held hostage to prevent a government offensive.
The focus of military activity has moved away from the north.
Despite an attack on a DiamondWorks mine three weeks ago, Unita has shown no disposition to recapture the Lundas. And the vast majority of Congolese mining for Unita in the region have returned to the Democratic Republic of Congo or dispersed elsewhere.
Although Savimbi no longer controls the richest diamonds fields, Unita is still smuggling out gems, probably worth about $200-million this year, in defiance of sanctions.
The ultimate stakes for Unita are much higher than enough diamonds to carry on fighting. The prize sought by Savimbi is political control of the country, one of the richest in Africa.
The international community, whose insistence on the Angolan peace process prevented the defeat of Unita in 1994, is apparently powerless in the face of Savimbi’s refusal to surrender his army.
International intervention has given Angola three years of relative peace after 23 years of war, interventionists claim. But Angolan officials in Luanda privately confess they may have made a mistake by agreeing to the 1994 peace accords.
The UN and the three peace monitoring nations – the United States, Russia and Portugal – place most of the blame for the renewal of conflict on Savimbi and his failure to disarm his troops and surrender his headquarters.
The UN has also made it clear that it will withdraw if there is a return to war.