Chiara Carter
Concern about the National Party’s decline in voter support has led to several senior party members mooting the possibility of unseating their leader, Marthinus van Schalkwyk, before the elections.
While no clear contenders have emerged, there are several factions jostling for power in the party and a strong drive for a change in leadership is coming from politicians in the Western Cape.
The region, which is run by the NP, remains its best chance for retaining some hold on power after the 1999 elections – and at least some of the tension stems from opposition to attempts by Van Schalkwyk to increase his involvement in the province.
Insiders said that, faced with a diminishing national power base, Van Schalkwyk has been looking increasingly to establishing a role for himself in the Western Cape in order to ensure his political future.
There is strong speculation that there will be a challenge to Van Schalkwyk at the NP congress which is scheduled to take place within the next two months after it was postponed last year.
There is also talk that a bid will be made to oust Van Schalkwyk at the party’s federal council held before the congress.
Insiders said the postponement of the congress was engineered by Van Schalkwyk to avoid a leadership tussle which might have pitted him against the Western Cape’s flamboyant Pieter Marais and Gauteng leader Johan Killian.
Those who have identified Van Schalkwyk as a scapegoat for the party’s poor performance in recent voter opinion polls are unhappy with his performance since taking over from FW de Klerk last year.
They are particularly concerned that Van Schalkwyk is failing to win voter confidence, and that the party lacks clear direction. They are pinning their hopes on a change of leadership which will allow the NP to double its support by the elections, as it did in the six months leading up to the 1994 poll.
However, more cautious politicians are concerned yet another leadership change will leave the party weak in the run-up to the elections.
Van Schalkwyk, popularly known as `Kortbroek’ (Short pants) because of his youthful appearance, was elected by the NP’s federal council and has yet to test his support at branch level. Those who want him out are yet to commit themselves to a possible successor, but have begun manoeuvring.
One contender whose name has come to the fore is Nick Koornhof, a suave politician who was redeployed from the national legislature to the Western Cape provincial parliament.
Koornhof has managed to avoid factional politics and has a good relationship with both Western Cape Premier Gerald Morkel and the number two in the region, Marais.
Marais is also a contender, despite having lost the premiership race to Morkel. More conservative members elsewhere in the country are pushing for MP Andre Fourie.
Meanwhile, a group of disgruntled Nationalists, unhappy with the party’s list of Western Cape candidates for next year’s election, met before Christmas with the NP leadership.
The meeting led to speculation that at least some members of the group would be accommodated by being placed higher on the party’s list.
They include MEC Lampie Fick, one of the most senior NP politicians in the region, and former MEC Martha Olckers, who last month held talks with the Democratic Party but subsequently denied that she intended defecting.
Another unhappy senior Nationalist, Nic Isaacs, assured the party of his loyalty at a recent bosberaad. Isaacs is being courted by both the DP and the African National Congress.
Others said to be exploring the option of party-hopping include veteran Dr JSQ du Toit, Antoinette Versfeld, Pauline Cupido and Charles Redcliffe.