/ 29 January 1999

Nigerians live in interesting times

Cameron Duodu:LETTER FROM THE NORTH

Nigeria is a country that never ceases to amaze me. Only seven months ago, there was so much tension in the country it could be cut with a knife.

General Sani Abacha was still alive and all was on course to transform him from a military dictator to an “elected” civilian president. The greatest obstacle to Abacha’s ambition, Chief Moshood Abiola, was also alive.

And then something intervened. Within a month of each other, both Abiola and Abacha were dead – Abacha died on June 8 1998 and Abiola on July 7.

Whatever lay behind the two deaths, they couldn’t have been more “convenient” for Nigeria’s ambitious politicians. And they set to work very fast; so fast in fact that in exactly one month from now, on February 27 to be exact, there will be a new presidential election.

The presidential election – which will take place at the same time as elections for members of the House of Representatives and senators – will be the last round of a series of elections that has already seen the country choosing local councillors and local council chairs (December 5 1998) and state governors and members of state assemblies (January 9 this year).

Three political parties have been fighting each other – the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) the All People’s Party (APP) and the Alliance for Democracy (AD).

In the first two elections, the PDP emerged victorious. This has forced the APP and the AD to agree to field a single presidential candidate. Which party will provide this candidate and whether the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) will allow this to be done – since the AD and the APP have already been registered as separate entities with distinct electoral symbols – are the hottest questions occupying the minds of Nigerians at the moment.

The AD’s front-runners for the job of presidential candidate, if the alliance with the APP sticks and the AD is allowed to field the flag-bearer for the two parties, are Chief Olu Falae and Chief Bola Ige.

Of the two, Ige, a former governor of Oyo State and the nearest thing to a political heir of the late Yoruba leader, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, would appear to be preferred by the AD itself.

But it is doubtful whether the AD could sell him to the APP, and, therefore, to the nation. This is because although Ige is an urbane and erudite lawyer, Nigerians from ethnic groups other than his own Yoruba regard him as someone who sees things through too much of a Yoruba prism. If he obtains the candidature, he will have his work cut out to dispel this notion.

Falae is regarded as a more “detribalised” Yoruba. But he was secretary to the Cabinet and later minister of finance, under the dictatorship of General Ibrahim Babangida (1985 to 1993). And much of the odium which attaches to the Babangida name – in respect of the annulment of the June 12 1993 election and the alleged corruption of the whole era – are political baggage that Falae is forced to lug around.

The APP’s front-runners, one of whom would be the running mate of either Falae or Ige (if the AD does win the privilege of providing the new alliance’s presidential candidate) include Chief Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu, a wealthy businessman who owns the Champion newspaper, and Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, a former governor of Kano State.

Rimi stand a better chance of capturing the APP nomination – in the event of the presidency being conceded to the AD – because he is a northerner, and it would be inconceivable for the alliance to present a “south-south” ticket (Falae or Ige plus, say, Iwuanyanwu or another southerner as vice-president) and expect to win in the north.

The PDP’s problem is one of personalities: the former military head of state, General Olusegun Obasanjo, has emerged as a front-runner for the party. But he is meeting strong opposition because few Nigerians want to elect a former military ruler, and thus be constantly reminded of the execrable military rule that Nigeria has suffered for 29 of its 39 years of independent nationhood. Obasanjo hasn’t helped himself much either, when he splashed $1,5-million around during his campaigning.

He is perceived as the “military’s candidate”, whose campaign bills, even if not paid by what should be his “impecunious self”, are nevertheless met by anonymous ex-generals and other former high-ranking military officers who have milked the country dry during the long years of military rule.

Obasanjo’s most serious opponent in the PDP is Alex Ekwueme, a former vice- president (under former president Shehu Shagari, who ruled from 1979 to 1983).

Ekwueme’s problem is that although he is personally recognised as an able man – he has built up a very successful architectural practice – the government he and Shagari ran two decades ago was very modest in its achievements: a veritable sheep in sheep’s clothing.

So, people have been teasing Ekwueme by asking, “Ekwueme? Now, what did he ever say or do while he was in government?” The answers are few in coming.

Yet, if Ekwueme were to be elected, it would mark Nigeria’s emergence as a politically mature nation. For Ekwueme is an Ibo, from the area that seceded from the Nigerian federation between 1967 and 1970, under the name Biafra.

Now if a “former Biafran” could become the president of a united Nigeria only 29 years after the bitter civil war, then the wounds of the nation’s past would have healed properly. We shall see.

But I tell you, these are very exciting days in Nigeria.