It is strange, to say the least, to hear opposition parties accusing the African National Congress of wanting to do well in the forthcoming election.
It is even stranger to hear the lumbering old ANC seeming to accept that it should feel a bit guilty about its likely success at the polls. It now assiduously avoids saying it wants to win a two-thirds majority. It offers, instead, that it is merely seeking an “overwhelming majority”.
It is as if some at the top of the ANC accept the opposition parties’ argument that, if the ruling party gets 67%of the vote on June 2, this may not be good for the country; that it may be just as harmful for the country if the ANC is seen to want a two-thirds majority; and that if the ANC does end up with two- thirds of the vote, we should all do our best to disguise the fact by referring to the ANC’s “overwhelming majority”.
In among all this fuss about a possible two-thirds majority, opposition and ANC politicians seem to have forgotten to tell us what its significance might be. They have neglected to take the rest of us along with them.
Well, does it matter if two-thirds of those of us who go to the polls on June 2 make a cross alongside the ANC’s name? The consensus among a handful of lawyers and economists I spoke to this week was: yes, it does.
With two-thirds of the seats in the National Assembly and the agreement of six out of nine provinces in the National Council of Provinces, the ruling party could amend the Bill of Rights, which establishes fundamental rights such as those to freedom of expression and religion, and to property. The same majorities in the Assembly and Council are necessary to change any constitutional provision dealing with the provinces.
Most other amendments to the Constitution require a straight two-thirds majority in the National Assembly alone. This would be all the ANC needed, say, to deprive important institutions – such as the Reserve Bank, charged with managing the rand, or the auditor general, who checks to see that state funds have been properly spent – of their independence and ability to do their jobs.
There are, however, two very deeply entrenched sections of the Constitution. The first covers attempts to alter the section of the Constitution which lays out the rules for amending the Constitution. To change this section, there must be a 75%majority in favour in the Assembly as well as the agreement of six of the nine provinces in the Council. The same majorities are required to change the foundational values of the Constitution. These values include the supremacy of the Constitution, the role of elections, political pluralism, non- racialism, non-sexism, and the like.
There are some lawyers who call for changes to the Constitution to bring greater clarity to the powers of provincial governments – an area in which they say the document is fuzzy. But they recognise that this might meet serious objections from opposition parties which believe that the Constitution’s very vagueness on the provinces’ powers helps maximise their autonomy, and so guarantees at least some devolution of power away from the centre.
It would be gross to suggest that the ANC, on balance, wants to interfere with civil or property rights, or to curb the independence of institutions like the auditor general. There are, it is true, some ANC leftwingers who advocate constitutional changes to give the state greater powers to redistribute wealth; some of them also see the auditor general, for example, as an agent of the old regime intent merely on harassing their comrades in the new government.
But there is good reason to believe that the ANC’s more serious leaders – including future president Thabo Mbeki, Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel, Minister of Trade and Industry Alec Erwin – are keenly aware of just how damaging constitutional amendments of such a kind would be.
Mbeki said on e.tv last weekend: “We think the Constitution is basically all right. There are no fundamental changes intended as far as the Constitution is concerned.”
His statement will go some way towards reassuring some of us who are worried. But it is unlikely to comfort those of us who fear that, whatever Mbeki’s expressed intentions, the mere fact of a two-thirds majority will create within the ANC an irresistible temptation to mess around with the Constitution.
A human rights lawyer put it thus: “One of the fundamental bases of our Constitution is an aversion to abuse of power. There is always the risk that power will be abused. When times get tough, emotions are swept up and there is a temptation to tamper with the Constitution for the worst reasons.”
His views find considerable support within the Democratic Party, New National Party and other opposition forces.
But, whereas the opposition parties are weak at this stage, there is another group with similar fears and immense power: those who work in the financial markets.
Participants say the markets assume the elections will go off well and that they are beginning to think the ANC will get a two-thirds majority. If it does get 67% of the vote, the effect would not be dramatic, they add. Instead, according to one foreign banker, alongside crime, corruption and the evident desire of many South African entrepreneurs to leave the country, “a two-thirds majority for the ruling party will just be one further thing foreigners don’t like about the place – it will be part of what is an accreting negative perception of South Africa”. And, he adds, if the ANC were even to start thinking audibly about curbing the autonomy of the Reserve Bank or the auditor general, the markets would punish the South African economy very heavily.
I can’t help thinking that, if I were still a member of the ANC, while working for my party’s victory I would be quietly hoping we didn’t do too well on June 2: that the combined ANC and Inkatha Freedom Party vote came in safely below the two- thirds threshold.