MICHAEL METELITS, Johannesburg | Thursday 11.30am.
THE ANC is on track for a two thirds majority, having breached the 64% level with over half the votes counted in the elections. The ruling party’s figures have been steadily moving upwards on Thursday morning, sharply picking up from 5am until 10am.
With rural areas where the ANC is strong yet to be counted, particularly in the Northern Cape and perhaps the Eastern Cape, the chances of a two-thirds majority are high.
While stability both in the polling process and government is key for international investors, there have been fears that an ANC two thirds majority will scare off foreign investors.
The Democratic Party is holding on above 11% nationally, standing at 11,37%, while the New National Party has been steadily dropping over the morning, standing at 8,76%. The NNP is quite close to the Inkatha Freedom Party, which has gained a little ground to 7,96% by 10am.
8.45AM
THE African National Congress has unofficially moved past the 60% barrier in national voting, sparking a new round of speculation about the possibility of a two-thirds majority. The ruling party currently has 61,5% of the 7,5-million votes unofficially counted.
Leading the race for official opposition status, the Democratic Party has about 12,60% of the national vote. The DP is likely at this stage to assume the opposition mantle without winning a majority in any single province. Tony Leon’s party polled 1,75% in the 1994 elections. The party’s best results have been in Gauteng, where they have over 26%, but across the country results have been mostly between 7 and 13%.
The New National Party currently has about 9,80% of the national vote, which still puts it within striking distance of the DP in the opposition race. The party is leading in its stronghold of the Western Cape, but may lose official oppostion status to the DP in five provinces. The NNP is about 6 percentage points shy of an outright majority in the Western Cape.
The Inkatha Freedom Party stands at 7,8% of the vote nationally, and is locked in a tight race with the ANC for its regional base in KwaZulu-Natal. Predictions that national support for the IFP might drop to 4% have so far proved unfounded, but many districts, particularly rural areas in the Northern Cape have yet to be counted.
Without too much fanfare the United Democratic Movement has picked up about 2,85% of the unofficial national vote so far. The UDM is well out of the official opposition race, and also has a battle on its hands in the Eastern Cape. The province containing the former Transkei was tipped as a potential UDM stronghold, but current projections show the ANC firmly in control by 72% to 10% for the UDM. Large numbers of districts and votes from the Transkei have yet to be counted, and their impact on the UDM’s progress in the province will be crucial.
The Vryheidsfront/Freedom Front has about 1,11% of the unofficial national vote, enough to put Constand Viljoen and perhaps one other leader into parliament. Viljoen expressed disappoointment with the splits among Afrikaner-oriented parties, and predicted allainces in order for the smaller parties to get their jobs done in parliament. Viljoen also cautioned that a significant portion of the DP’s Afrikaner vote might be a protest vote, and not firm support.
The welter of smaller parties, including the Pan-Africanist Congress and the Federal Alliance are scrapping over less than 1% of the vote each at this stage.