ANDY COLQUHOUN, Johannesburg | Wednesday 3.00pm.
THE Springboks leave for the Rugby World Cup on Thursday but it’ll be another 31 days before the tournament brings us to the edge of our seats as South Africa’s fate finally hangs in the balance.
Until then we’ll have to endure a month of the phony war. We’ll speculate and rage on Blessed Bob’s knee and whether Muller or Venter should be at inside centre and whether it’s time to give Breyton a start in the number 15 jersey.
But it’ll only be so much sound and light until the quarter-finals arrive on October 23 and 24.
They are the key to South Africa’s tournament.
If they defeat England or New Zealand (in either Paris or Edinburgh) I believe they will reach the final.
I’ll place my head on the block before the end of this piece but for now let’s consider the contenders.
Of the 20 teams only five have what it takes to win it and of those two of them will have to perform beyond all their known capabilities to do so.
The Tri-Nations have done it before and are all capable of doing it again but England and Wales could carry the banner for the north to the winner’s rostrum for the first time.
What stands in their way is as much tradition as talent.
England again have a mighty pack and in Jonny Wilkinson they have a reborn Rob Andrew to kick their goals.
They are good enough to beat any of the Tri-Nations sides at Twickenham – and they have their group matches there as well as their semi-final – but no side with so much potential has fallen at the hurdles quite so often.
After all, they let slip the Five Nations this year when it should comfortably have been theirs.
Wales beat England at Wembley in the Five Nations denouement and are on an eight-match winning streak. They are in-form, confident and have a nation behind them. If they reach the final, sheer national hunger is likely to carry them to the trophy.
They will have to beat Australia in Cardiff but a Twickenham semi-final is likely to be their downfall. They will face South Africa, England or New Zealand there.
If those are discounted – and I do so nervously – then who from the South will win it for a second time?
As much as it pains to me to say it – I can see little further than the All Blacks.
They may have lost in the final Tri-Nations match of the year but they had the title in the bag by then and had been massively superior in their first three victories.
They have problems at centre but to counter that is the fact that Jonah Lomu has rediscovered his zest. They know what they’re doing and have been doing it for most of this season.
Australia have finished bottom of the Tri-Nations log three times before clambering to second in 1999 but they demonstrated little in doing so to suggest that they are about to confound that form-book.
The return of a fully fit John Eales and Stephen Larkham (which remains in doubt) would be a help but their aging pack is too inconsistent to provide a reliable basis for a title-winning campaign.
Which leaves the ‘Boks. If Skinstad plays like he did in the Super 12 and Van der Westhuizen and Honiball enjoy their best form (which requires Henry to kick his goals almost without fail) then the side has the potential to retain the trophy.
But in the case of Skinstad it’s a big “if”.
I believe Mallett is right to have built his strategy around him – even if that meant dropping Teichmann -and if the big Western Province eighth man is absent then Mallett’s campaign may well be holed below the waterline.
The Springbok pack is superb but it’s not enough to win the tournament on its own and the lack of composure and fluency in the backline is alarming.
The ‘Boks have devastating finishers on the outside but they never seem to be brought into play until the 19th recycling through the forwards – and it’s been rare that they have managed to recycle it more than three or four times without a knock-on or an opponent killing the ball.
So, the quarter-finals. If South Africa top their group – and it’s entirely possible they could be caught cold in their first group match by Scotland on October 3 – then they are likely to face England in Paris.
The packs will cancel each other out and if Skinstad isn’t game-breaking then it may come down to a kicking duel. Wilkinson would win that and the Boks are out.
But I can’t bring myself to believe that, so it’s South Africa versus New Zealand in the final.
Who knows what could happen then but in order to avoid fence-sitting, I go for the All Blacks as the 1999 World Champions.