SARAH BULLEN and Reuters, Cape Town | Monday 1.45pm
ECONOMISTS were pleasantly surprised on Monday when Statistics South Africa announced that the economy grew a seasonally adjusted and annualised 3,1% in the third quarter of 1999.
The third quarter Gross Domestic Product calculation by Stats SA was seasonally adjusted and annualised. A Reuters poll of economists forecast a third quarter rise of 2,6%.
The leap in the third quarter comes after second quarter GDP rose a revised 2,1% after a preliminary 1,7% estimated rise. The figures are at constant 1990 market prices.
The 3,1% annualised increase in GDP was mainly due to increases in the real value added by agriculture, forestry and fishing (1,6 percentage points), finance, real estate and business services (0,5 of a percentage point) and transport and communication (0,4 of a percentage point) industries.
Barnard Jacobs Mellet economist Chantal Friedman said that: “What is probably interesting is that the growth increase excluding agriculture was quite a bit less at 1,6% (seasonally-adjusted and annualised). So there has been a bit of a boost from agriculture which is a fairly volatile category. “What is encouraging is that manufacturing grew by 1,1% compared with 0,5% in the second quarter which could be related to industry restocking.
Stats SA is responsible for compiling the production side of the national accounts, while the South African Reserve Bank is responsible for compiling the expenditure side of the national accounts, as well as income and savings and the balance of payments. The SARB will release their estimates on 2 December 1999.