Donna Block
SHAREWORLD
Once upon a time, there were two markets. One presided over the shares of what is now known as the old economy – value stocks, blue chips – those that actually have earnings. The other was home to the new economy – those high-flying technology stocks that someday may earn a little something.
But thanks to Microsoft and the bloodletting on the Nasdaq of late (the home of the new economy) value investing is again back in vogue, and investors are trading out of tech stocks and back into the safe harbour of old economy companies.
In the case of Microsoft, a United States federal judge issued his ruling in the landmark antitrust trial late on Monday afternoon.
Microsoft shares tumbled after voluntary settlement talks had collapsed last weekend.
The fall lopped more than $73-billion off the software giant’s market value and took lots of new economy shares along for the ride. The Nasdaq posted its biggest one-day correction yet and the carnage may not be over.
Worries about Microsoft, a major component stock of the Nasdaq composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, prompted investors to resume a pattern seen through much of last week – a rotation out of the volatile tech sector and into the relative safety of blue-chip stocks.
It’s been a stomach-churning week for investors and, if you take on board what some Wall Street gurus predict, it could get worse.
Investors started heading for the exits when Goldman Sachs market maven Abby Joseph Cohen reduced her share holdings and increased her position in cash. Money manager Mark Mobius said high-flying stocks are headed for a crash.
Value guru Julian Robertson of Tiger Management threw in the towel and value purist Robert Sanborn of Oakmark Fund was ousted after a poor year in 1999.
Nonetheless, investors have to remember that Wall Street pros typically make predictions for the short term, not the long term. But even that perspective provided little comfort to investors who were hammered by the Nasdaq this week.
According to one analyst in New York, there are some other factors which add to the market’s woes right now. There are investors who have short-term profits in their hands – all they needed was an excuse to sell.
The comments made by the Street’s gurus gave them that excuse and the slide started.
In addition, investors’ concerns are turning to the many Internet companies that raised millions in successful public offerings or in infusions of venture capital in the past few years and are nowhere near making money.
Meanwhile, some may be running out of cash for the technological expansion needed to fulfil promises to deliver new products online.
However, even though the new economy stocks are taking a beating it’s a little premature to sound the death knell.
The story of two markets continues as many market watchers don’t believe the bull market in tech- nology is over. It may shift from one exchange to another and some air may have been let out of the bubble but it has yet to burst, goes the thinking.
Wall Street sages were emphatic that the index’s decline recently is a healthy turnaround. Too many Nasdaq stocks were being cheered on by speculators without any regard to their real value, they said, and the drop is a righting of an unbalanced market. They say that when the Nasdaq does rebound it will rally more carefully because some traders have finally discovered markets can go both ways.
The question now is, are bullish investors riding in a real golden carriage, or will it revert to being a pumpkin come midnight?