/ 18 August 2000

Population growth unchecked by Aids

Khadija Magardie The latest statistics of the United States- based Population Reference Bureau (PRB) indicate that sub-Saharan Africa has the fastest-growing population “of any major region in the world”. According to the 2000 World Population Data Sheet, the region has a population of 657- million and a total fertility rate of 5,8 children per woman. This despite policies to reduce population growth, such as improving access to reproductive health care, and high levels of HIV/Aids. What appears contradictory is the fact that statistics released by organisations like the United Nations programme against Aids, UNAIDS, point to the region having one of the world’s highest mortality rates due to Aids.

The report itself says the highest proportion of infections stands at 7,1% of the population – in sub-Saharan Africa. But the presence of HIV/Aids has apparently served as little more than a slight knocking off at a regional population that is expected to reach 1,5-billion by 2050. Over the next half century, Africa is projected to become home to a larger share of the world’s population – increasing from 13% of the world’s population in 2000 to 16% by 2025. During the same time, Europe’s population is projected to decline from 12% of the current world total, to 7% by 2050. This despite the effects of globalisation, which has led to a blurring of borders, and a constant international flow of labour. Europe has also become the destination of populations of refugees and immigrants, which would be expected to swell population figures.

Globally, about 1% of the population is estimated to be infected with HIV/Aids. Approximately 95% of these infections are said to be in developing countries. According to the report, “Africa, which accounts for 13% of the world’s population, accounts for 69% of the cases of HIV infection.”

The sub-Saharan region, reads the report, has about one in every 30 people infected with HIV. Just over half of these people live in East Africa. The report also says that nearly three million people in South Africa are infected with HIV – “the highest number of any country in Africa”. The data sheet also indicates that although the use of modern family-planning methods has increased worldwide, nearly two-thirds of women in developing countries (apart from China) are not using contraception. Again, sub-Saharan Africa is hardest hit, with “nearly 90% of women not using modern contraception”.

The link between reproductive health care and the spread of the virus is explored through linking it to new evidence that suggests that more women than men are infected with HIV on this continent – up to 12 or 13 women are infected for every 10 men who are infected. The report attributes this to the fact that women contract the disease at younger ages and, due to their biology, may be more likely to become infected during any single exposure. Taken from the 2000 World Population Data Sheet, published by the Population Reference Bureau