/ 26 January 2001

Trying times for Asian trio

One down, one tottering and ­another struggling even to get up. Allegations of corruption are threatening to destroy the political careers of President Joseph Estrada ­in the Philippines, Prime Minister Abdur­rah­man Wahid in Indonesia and ­Thak­sin Shina­watra in Thailand. But, as is the nature of politics in the ­region, these South-East Asian ­leaders are not ­giving up without a fight.

Estrada is undoubtedly in the least enviable position. His crisis began last October when a provincial governor accused the president of accepting nearly $12-million in bribes from ­cigarette taxes and illegal gambling. Opposition groups filed impeachment charges that led to a ­United States-style Senate trial that began last month.

Witnesses test­ified that ­Estrada kept multimillion-dollar bank ­accounts under false names and had profited from insider-trading. When a narrow majority of senators refused last week to examine vital bank ­re­cords, the prosecution team quit and outraged Filipinos took to the streets. Forced from the presidency by the popular uprising, Estrada’s position worsened this week when prosecutors ­formally charged him with six ­of­fences, ­including perjury, graft, bribery and economic plunder.

The ­latter carries the death penalty, ­although few ­pundits feel the disgraced former ­actor will suffer such a fate. Anticipating such a move, ­Estrada ­pre-empted his accusers by issuing a terse statement saying that he had not resigned; he was merely unable to continue functioning as president and had therefore ceded temporary ­authority to his former deputy, ­Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Few people believe it will do him any good. “This is just the last death-throes of the ­Estrada administration,” said former Philippines presi­dent ­Fidel Ramos. Wahid is proving equally feisty. Accused of involvement in two ­financial scandals that cost the state $6-million, this week he faced up to his tormentors — a ­50-strong ­panel of legislators — and treated them with contempt.

The panel expected the half-blind Muslim cleric, who became Indonesia’s first democrati­cally elected presi­dent in 1999, to submit to questioning, but he refused and stormed out after 30 minutes. Such maverick behaviour­ has become a trademark of the Wahid presi­dency, but opposition is growing and impeachment is a ­real ­possibility. Crucially, ­unlike ­the Philippines leader, Wahid still has the support of his vice-­president, Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Thaksin, whose Thais Love Thais Party won the first majority in the lower house of Parliament, might never experience such travails. Not ­only are more than 50 of the 500 constituencies having to hold new ballots, due to extensive claims of vote-buying, but Thaksin is ­under investigation for a false declaration of assets. Thaksin described such alleged transgressions as a genuine mistake. He said the investigations should cease because Thais had known about the allegations and had voted for him in record numbers.

The ­Constitutional Court could take months to reach a verdict, leaving the country in limbo. Although circumstances differ in all three countries, a common thread of corruption weaves through them. “Corruption is so endemic through­out the region it’s a part of life,” says Karina David, who resigned as a mini­ster in Estrada’s government in disgust at his behaviour. “Anybody who has been part of the political system has been tainted by corruption, even if it has not and cannot be proven.”

Except in Singapore, low official salaries, strong executive power, close links between business executives and their political counterparts and poor law enforcement mean that corruption is part and parcel of politics. Things might be changing, ­how­ever. David says it is no coincidence that three leaders are in trouble simul­taneously. “The level of popular cynicism has risen so much ­recently that people are much more aware of what’s going on. They just won’t stand for it.”

The likelihood of another general Suharto or Ferdinand Marcos managing to siphon off billions is ­reducing, albeit at a snail’s pace. “The latitude is now very, very small compared to the past,” says David. “In ­Gloria [Macapagal-Arroyo]’s case, it is practically non-existent.”