WEAPONS from Eastern Europe are being smuggled through Syria into Iraq, as Saddam Hussein builds up his defences in anticipation of a United States-led assault, according to three Iraqi officers who have fled to Europe.
The defectors, all members of the dissident Iraqi Officers’ Movement (IOM), described an atmosphere of high tension and paranoia bordering on panic within the Baghdad regime. While putting its forces on high alert and establishing new bunkers, it has stepped up executions of officers and civilians suspected of disloyalty.
But the crackdown has only contributed to a downward spiral in military morale, even in the elite units that the defectors are drawn from. Poor and irregular pay, fear of bombing and concern over potential purges have rapidly pushed up the rate of desertions, despite the danger of reprisals, to the extent that well over a quarter of the 400 000-strong army are now missing from their posts.
The three defectors served in different capacities under Qusay Hussein, the president’s son who is responsible for the inner ring of the dictatorship’s defences.
According to their accounts, the first of three arms consignments bound for Iraq arrived in the Syrian port of Latakia on February 23. The first consignment included anti-aircraft missiles, rockets and guidance systems for Iraq’s long-range variants of the old Soviet scud missile, all illegal under the United Nations embargo.
The smuggling operation is just one element in Iraq’s build-up, said the defectors, who were all adamant that Saddam had stepped up his development of nuclear, chemical and biological arms since the departure of UN weapons inspectors in 1998. However, they conceded that their evidence for any such build-up was anecdotal and indirect.
According to a document provided by the defectors, the regime is attempting to develop a radar system capable of detecting US stealth aircraft.
The New York Times reported this week that the US administration was fine-tuning plans for an air and ground assault against Iraq involving up to 250 000 troops, although the campaign was likely to be postponed until early next year.
According to the defectors, the Iraqi regime is braced for an attack ”at any time”. In March, the nation’s defences were arranged into five zones and the military commanders were reshuffled. The growth in military preparations has been accompanied by a surge in brutality, marked by mass executions.
One of the defectors estimated that the rate of executions had nearly doubled since last year, and that 1 500 civilians had been killed in the first two months of the year.
The campaign of terror has served only to accelerate the rate of desertions, as have fears of a devastating US air campaign. It is estimated by the defectors that 25% of Saddam’s army has left already.
Apparently Iraq is preparing to back down on its refusal to allow UN weapons inspectors to return to the country in the hope that this will avert a US attack.
Iraqi willingness to cave in comes amid reports that the US is planning an invasion of Iraq early next year.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri al-Hadithi was expected to have talks in New York this week with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to discuss the weapons inspectors and sanctions.
According to a participant in discussions at the Iraqi Foreign Ministry this week, the Iraqi government will compromise, though it may try to string out the negotiations.
Saddam is said to be extremely worried about the threats from the White House. The Iraqi government is said to believe that any US attack will be by missiles, but does not know whether the targets will be confined to military, presidential and ministry sites or will include civilian infrastructure.
Both the US and Britain insist that Saddam has built up his arsenal in the absence of the inspectors. Iraq denies it.
Al-Hadithi will tell Annan that the weapons inspectors can return but will try to set conditions. The main one is that the inspections be time-limited rather than indefinite. Another condition is that they are not allowed into Saddam’s presidential palaces.
The Iraqis may be willing to back down on the second condition. The Foreign Ministry participant said the inspectors had been allowed in before: ”It is nonsense to think that Saddam would sleep above a pile of biological and chemical weapons.”