ZIMBABWE raises the most concerns of any African country and peaceful political change there is “almost inconceivable,” a report by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) said on Thursday.
Robert Mugabe’s re-election for a sixth term as president after a very violent campaign and a ballot plagued by irregularities, was highlighted as the continent’s prime concern by the IISS in its annual retrospective view of the years political and military trends.
“Despite condemnation as well as diplomatic and economic isolation by virtually all major powers, the refusal of regional leaders — in particular South African President Thabo Mbeki — to seriously question the result helped Mugabe to remain unrepentant for his coercive land seizures and gross economic irresponsibility,” said the report.
“Whether popular upheaval or state repression carries the day is a key question for southern African stability,” it continued.
“Either humanitarian disaster or a further deterioration in security could prompt aggressive outside diplomatic, economic or even military intervention.
“In any event, Mugabe’s sustained excesses have made Zimbabwe’s political and economic rehabilitation a long-term project,” it concluded.
A forgotten continent, Africa and its ever-worsening poverty and health problems again grabbed the attention of the international community in 2001 after the September 11 attacks.
The focus was immediately on Somalia “as a possible safe haven for terrorists and as a potential target for US military action following the war in Afghanistan,” the IISS said.
“It is possible, however that September 11 will rebound to Africa’s benefit in this regard,” the report continued.
“The West’s long-term strategic interest in depriving terrorists of safe havens may animate greater economic and political involvement in the region to remedy or forestall state failure and, perforce, greater attention to the devastating problems of poverty and Aids.”
The report highlighted the New Partnership for African Development (Nepad), devised by Britain, South Africa, Nigeria and Algeria, as a possible vehicle for aid from Western donors for economic development.
Last year’s terror outrages in New York and Washington have already changed the situation in Africa and forced certain states to change.
“Sudan’s government, though still highly problematic, has appeared more inclined to end its international isolation in co-operating with the US-led counter-terrorism campaign and with peace initiatives aimed at ending Sudan’s civil conflict,” the report said.
Countries in the Horn of Africa “manoeuvred to promote themselves as important allies in the global campaign against terrorism,” the IISS said, highlighting Ethiopia and Kenya, to a lesser extent, as trying “to use counter-terrorism as a rationale for actions against domestic opponents.”
“In civil-war riven Angola, on the other hand, a single military development may have increased the potential for peace,” said the defence think tank.
This was the killing on February, 22, 2002 of Unita leader Jonas Savimbi by government forces which led to peace talks between the government and rebel forces.
The IISS expressed surprise also at the improvement in West Africa where Liberian President Charles Taylor “has been and continues to be the principal ‘spoiler’ in the region.”
“Heightened outside scrutiny after September 11, and an emerging indigent insurgency appeared to dampen Liberia’s support for Sierra Leonean and Guinean rebels,” it concluded. – AFP