Kevin Scott
Increasing the police force will do virtually nothing to curb murder and violent crime, leading security and crime researchers said in reaction this week to Minister of Safety and Security Steve Tshwete’s announcement of plans to boost police numbers.
Tshwete told a parliamentary news conference on Monday that police numbers would be increased by 5000 to 127000 by March, and 140000 officers would be operational in three years’ time. Although welcomed, researchers say this will not bring down levels violent crime.
”Even if one had to double the police force it wouldn’t be able to make much impact on the murder rate,” says Institute for Security Studies (ISS)senior researcher Martin Schnteich. ”The majority of people who are affected by violent crime know their perpetrators,” he says. There are lots of social factors at play such as poverty and drugs that are beyond police control, he says.
South Africa’s murder rate is estimated at nearly 57 homicides per 100000 people, among the highest in the world, say researchers at the ISS and the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR). It also has among the highest rates of rape, robbery and violent theft.
Tshwete, however, is confident that crime in the country is under control. ”Criminals are on the run,” he said at the news conference.
He said that South Africa is faring better in its fight against crime than other countries such as Canada, Russia, Colombia and Britain. He accused ”government detractors” and ”mischief-makers abroad” of painting a bleaker picture than was realistic for South Africa.
Quoting Internet sources, Tshwete said that in Russia it is estimated that up to 80% of businesses pay ”protection fees” to the 5000 to 8000 gangs operating in the country. He also said that more cars are stolen per day in Canada and that Colombia and Britain are behind South Africa in fighting various forms of criminality.
But senior researches at the ISS and CSVR say Tshwete made a ”selective comparison”. ”Comparing crime figures with other countries is difficult because many crimes are defined in different manners,” says Schnteich. ”Murder is a good benchmark as it is reported most often and gives a good correlation between countries.”
Tshwete has previously tried to play down the murder rate. Last year, when the latest local crime statistics were made available, he pointed out that the murder rate in Diadema, a Brazilian town with a population of less than half a million, was higher than in Johannesburg, often labelled the murder capital of South Africa.
Schnteich says figures of ”obscure towns” such as Diadema aren’t comparable to cities like Johannesburg. ”There is a broad trend that South Africa stands out as one of the most violent countries in the world in terms of crime,” he says.
Current figures show that about 20000 murders were committed in South Africa last year. ”In terms of murder, we are the crime capital of the world,” says Schnteich. ”Of all the crimes reported in South Africa,” he says, ”one in three will involve violence or the threat of violence.”
”In the United States this figure is about 15% and in the United Kingdom 6%.”
Tshwete said that in Canada more than 500 vehicles are stolen per day. Researchers, however, say this type of information is misleading. ”You have to have information on the total number of vehicles in South Africa compared to other countries,” says David Bruce, a senior researcher at the CSVR. ”You have to be aware of the difference between reported and recorded crime. In countries like Canada, a car getting stolen and then quickly recovered would be much more likely to be recorded than in South Africa.”
In a 1999 survey comparing 32 countries by the UK’s Home Office and this week released by the Democratic Alliance, South Africa has the highest homicide rate and Russia the second highest at nearly 21 homicides per 100000. The survey includes European Union countries as well as Canada, Australia, Japan and the US.