DREW FORREST, Johannesburg | Friday
TWO Markinor surveys point to a steady downward trend in voter approval of the government and its leaders, with waning support on economic policy, HIV/Aids and governance issues such as corruption.
The latest survey shows that only 42% of subjects drawn from metropolitan areas “trust” President Thabo Mbeki as a political leader.
African National Congress supporters are less sceptical, but more than a third of them do not endorse his leadership, while slightly less than a quarter rate his performance “very good”.
A Markinor survey on government delivery released last month showed that the proportion of voters who think Mbeki is doing “very well” or “fairly well” fell from 71% in May 2000 to 56% in November last year. Approval of the government’s performance fell from 59% to 49% over the same period.
Markinor points out that the research was conducted before the December meltdown in the rand, which has inflated food prices.
Recent developments on Aids, especially former president Nelson Mandela’s failed intervention, may also have fuelled slowly growing public disapproval. Last November 54% of respondents considered the government’s Aids record very or fairly good, compared with 65% in May 2000.
However, there is not much solace for opposition parties in the findings, which suggest, Markinor says, “that voters are not satisfied with the quality of opposition leadership”.
“Although the question was only posed to voters residing in metro areas, the lack of trust in current opposition party leaders’ ability to lead political parties is most disconcerting and a strong indictment of political depth in the country,” it says.
Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon registers the highest level of political trust, at 28%, and retains 63% support in his own party despite last year’s DA split. But his support among Africans is a flimsy 15%, compared with 43% among whites, 34% among coloureds and 31% among Indians.
Leon scores poorly among followers of mainly black parties: 16% among ANC and Pan Africanist Congress supporters and a lowly 4% among supporters of the Inkatha Freedom Party.
Conversely, only 14% of DA supporters trust Inkatha Freedom Party leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi to lead a political party. This suggests that the tentative toenadering between the DA and IFP does not have the imprimatur of the rank and file.
Buthelezi has the strongest following of any leader within his own party (76%), pointing to the hierarchical and traditional character of the IFP. But the survey underscores his continued difficulty in clawing back lost white support (17%) and appealing to the African population as a whole (18%).
Also bad news for the DA, which bases itself on vigorous opposition, is the survey’s finding that 60% of voters would prefer opposition parties to play a more cooperative role. The racial breakdown is significant: 80% of whites, 68% of Indians and 62% of coloured people want a competitive opposition, as against 26% of Africans.
About half the voters surveyed believe an opposition party must be black-led to succeed. But a breakdown by race shows that minorities feel this much more strongly than Africans – perhaps underscoring the former’s political alienation and sense of powerlessness. Only 39% of Africans and 38% of ANC supporters hold this view, as against 64% of coloureds, 54% of whites and the same percentage of Indians.
Leon can take cheer, however, from Markinor’s findings on New National Party leader Marthinus van Schalk-wyk. Van Schalkwyk’s leadership is trusted by a scant 39% of his party’s supporters, and by 8% of supporters of the ANC – a party with which he has a cooperation agreement.
Only 19% of ANC loyalists and 25% of NNP supporters believe the ANC-NNP pact will succeed. Ironically, a significantly higher proportion of DA loyalists believe it will work (43%).
In the Western Cape, the last redoubt of the NNP, Van Schalkwyk is trusted by a mere 18% of voters. This strongly suggests the party will evaporate after the 2004 election.
The slide in public endorsement of the government’s performance emerges across a range of indicators. Since July 1999 the assessment of delivery as “very good” or “fairly good” has slipped from 62% to 50% on housing, 66% to 57% on basic health services, 74% to 63% on the delivery of water and electricity, and 63% to 51% on land reform.
On all three economic indicators surveyed – macroeconomic management, job-creation and inflation – perceptions have worsened. Only 17% of voters endorse the government’s efforts on jobs and 33% its efforts on inflation, compared with 24% and 40% respectively in July 1999.
On governance issues – corruption, government appointments, and transparency and accountability – there has been a similar steady decline in public approval. On government corruption-busting efforts, 36% of voters deemed the government’s performance very or fairly good, compared with 45% in July 1999. On transparency and accountability, endorsement is sharply down from 52% to 35%.