Northern Ireland faces a ”nightmare scenario” with Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionists Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein becoming the dominant parties and the peace process in such trouble that it would take a generation to resolve, First Minister David Trimble said this week.
In an interview ahead of a crucial government statement on Wednesday, Trimble issued a stern warning to British Prime Minister Tony Blair to ”get a grip on the situation” before paramilitary activities and mistrust push the province into a political abyss.
In next May’s elections to the Stormont Assembly, he fears that either Sinn Fein or the DUP could emerge as the dominant party. ”Then we have a crisis, a huge crisis. But if they’re both there, if we find ourselves in a situation where the top dogs in Ulster politics are Gerry Adams and Paisley, then it is an absolute disaster.”
Trimble said if this happened, ”the whole thing goes pear-shaped. Probably it will take you another generation to fix it.”
His stark warning was aimed at the British government, which on Wednesday issued a warning to the Irish Republican Army (IRA) to abandon all paramilitary activitiy or risk expulsion of Sinn Fein from Northern Ireland’s power-sharing executive.
In an attempt to throw a lifeline to Trimble, Blair announced that the United Kingdom government would introduce a more ”rigorous” test to assess whether the IRA and the unionist paramilitaries are observing their ceasefire.
But Trimble expressed disappointment after what he described as the ”nearly statement” that the British government had not gone far enough in warning republicans that they must end all violence.
He had challenged the government to boost unionist confidence by giving a more robust definition of the IRA ceasefire and clear guidelines on what will happen if it is breached.
Hardline Ulster Unionists want Blair to throw republicans out of Stormont, or for Trimble to quit the power-sharing executive.
Earlier Sinn Fein warned Blair that expelling them now would create an unprecedented crisis. But Trimble insisted neither his resignation nor the threat of republicans being excluded would wreck the peace process.
He admitted the IRA’s apology last week for civilian casualties surprised him. But he dismissed it as a tactical, ”calculated” response to the 30th anniversary of the Bloody Friday killings, when Adams, he alleged, was a senior IRA commander in Belfast.
Senior security and republican sources claim Adams was the Belfast IRA second in command in July 1972 and that he later became overall leader. They say he still retains his seat as one of the ruling IRA army council. Last weekend Adams repeated denials that he was ever an IRA member.
Though Trimble is facing a serious challenge from inside his own party, he was adamant he would not quit. He admitted finding the battle wearying, but added: ”The temptation to walk away doesn’t last very long. There’s still a job to be finished here and it’s one I intend to finish.”
He also insisted that his idea of holding a poll on whether Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK on the same day as the Assembly elections would be the best way to settle the matter in favour of retaining the union for at least a generation.
”The poll would translate the principle of consent into reality and bring republicans back down to Earth,” he added. — (c) Guardian Newspapers