/ 29 December 2002

Power shortage looms in Japan

Fears of a power shortage are mounting in Japan as nuclear plants could remain closed next year after an atomic cover-up scandal triggered a rare campaign to save energy.

In a bid to weather a winter peak in electricity use, the government and Tokyo Electric Power Co. (Tepco) launched an historic emergency campaign in mid-December, unseen since the country’s 1973 oil crisis.

The world’s largest private electric power company will personally ask 10 000 corporate clients to save electricity by lowering temperatures in heating systems and switching power off in unused rooms.

”Our biggest concern is a serious cold spell, which would make demand for electricity shoot up,” said Toru Ueno, a Tepco representative.

”But we are still confident we can avoid a large blackout and overcome the winter peak in electricity demand, which usually lasts until March.”

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s administration has ordered all ministry and government agencies to conserve electricity, while the Energy Agency will mount banners on its buildings asking for public cooperation in energy-saving.

TepcoEPCO said earlier this month it would consecutively suspend power generation at its 17 nuclear reactors for emergency inspections after admitting to falsifying safety records at nuclear plants since the late 1980s.

Former president Nobuya Minami resigned in September over the scandal and Tepco carried out an in-house investigation in efforts to regain trust from residents living near nuclear power facilities.

The firm, which has already stopped operating nine reactors, aims to use other types of power generators to make up for the drop in nuclear output, which accounts for 44% of its total supply.

Despite its efforts, Tepco’s electricity surplus has trickled away and is expected by March to taper off completely if the suspension of operations at nuclear reactors continues.

”We forecast Tepco will barely manage to survive this winter if there is no accident,” said Hiroyuki Sakaida, utilities sector analyst at Lehman Brothers.

”But a real problem may come in the summer. If full suspension of nuclear reactors continues until summer, Tokyo will experience an unprecedented blackout for sure. Electricity in Tokyo is fully dependant upon how swiftly the firm can finish inspections.”

Irrespective of the continued troubles with Tepco’s nuclear reactors, the government is still heavily dependent on them because of what they say is Japan’s lack of natural resources. The nation’s last nuclear disaster was in 1999 when two people were killed and 400 others exposed to radiation in a uranium processing accident in Tokaimura, northeast of Tokyo. It was the world’s worst nuclear accident since the Chernobyl crisis in 1986.

”We are aware of difficulties in maintaining nuclear energy facilities, but nuclear energy is still a pillar of our energy programme,” said Tatsuji Narita, an official of the Energy Agency. Japan plans to raise its nuclear reliance further, from providing 35% of the nation’s power in 2001 to 42% in 2010. Germany, by contrast, plans to eliminate all nuclear power plants by 2020.

”All we have to do is to strengthen inspection rules and prevent a repeat of any nuclear-related accidents,” Narita insisted. Anti-nuclear groups and residents are among those urging the government to seek other energy sources to reduce its reliance on nuclear power.

”Without trying to seek alternatives, the government is blindly sticking to nuclear energy,” said Kazue Suzuki, a member of Greenpeace. ”Japan should realise that there is a limit to the use of this dangerous energy.”

Lehman Brothers’ Sakaida predicted a change in Japan’s energy policy could come with the continued liberalisation of electricity providers, which began in 2000.

”Tepco now should be regarded as a private company, rather than a public utility firm,” he said.

”No one knows if Tepco will keep investing in costly nuclear power plants in the future. There is no guarantee that Japanese electric power companies will follow what the government hopes to do from now on.”

An unanticipated and unwanted side effect of Tepco’s suspension of its nuclear plants has been a rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which contribute to global warming. ”We are concerned about a considerable expansion of CO2 emission as Tepco is to use coal and thermal power generators while they close nuclear plants,” an environmental ministry official said.

Japan is struggling to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions under a United Nations protocol named for the Japanese city, Kyoto, in which it was developed.

Its CO2 emissions in the year to March 2001 rose 0,3% from the previous year to an all-time high of about 1,24-billion tons, running counter to its commitment to the 1997 Kyoto protocol, which would have emissions reduced by six percent of its 1990 levels. – Sapa-AFP