Whatever the method used (and this could involve the employment of all available fingers and toes), it still remains all but impossible to guess at the make-up of the Super Six round even as the preliminary round of the World Cup moves into its closing stages.
The only thing it seems safe to presume is that Australia will be in the Super Sixes, probably with maximum points, although even here England, who play the Australians in Port Elizabeth on Sunday, still have an outside chance of having a say in this.
Australia have dominated pool A, Thursday’s dismissal of Namibia giving them five wins from five matches, but India, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and, though you wouldn’t bet on them, England still remain in contention to accompany the Australians.
The outcome of this pool, however, looks to hinge on Saturday’s huge showdown between India and Pakistan at Centurion Park. The form book is likely to go out of the window for this one, but India’s wonderful bowling at Kingsmead on Wednesday, coupled with Sachin Tendulkar’s ominous form, suggests the Indians might well be too organised for a Pakistan team that can’t seem to work out exactly where it is going.
And if Pakistan do lose at Centurion, Zimbabwe will fancy their chances when these two teams face each other in Bulawayo on Tuesday.
Pool B, meanwhile, is even murkier, although the lifeline thrown to South Africa by rain in Benoni is still on offer. For Shaun Pollock’s side, who disposed of Canada on Thursday, albeit after an alarming early wobble, the equation is dead simple: beat Sri Lanka at Kingsmead on Monday and progress to the Super Sixes, no matter what else happens.
The argument is frequently raised that the preliminary round should primarily serve to weed out the weaker teams. In other words, eliminate the minnows along with the likes of Kenya, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe as quickly as possible and allow the real teams to get on with it. Invariably, though, it doesn’t always work out quite so neatly and this time around Kenya have come up with a surprise run.
It is, in fact, now possible that Kenya could top pool B. The four free points from New Zealand’s refusal to play in Nairobi and the surprise victory over Sri Lanka this week have given Kenya 12 points. If the Kenyans beat Bangladesh at the Wanderers on Saturday, which is entirely possible, they will have 16 points and their final match is against the West Indies in Kimberley on Tuesday.
It hardly needs to be pointed out that Kenya have beaten the West Indies in a previous World Cup.
More probable, though, is for Kenya to end this stage with 16 points along with South Africa — if South Africa beat Sri Lanka — and New Zealand and the most important match in the pool now seems to be Sri Lanka’s clash with the West Indies at Newlands on Friday night. While the winners of this game will still have some work to do to go through, the losers will be in serious trouble.
Starting on Friday there are still 10 games to played in the preliminary round, five in each pool.
Only one of these matches — Holland against Namibia on Monday — will have no bearing on the final placings. It’s as complicated as that and this is even before you start trying to work out how many points the qualifying teams will take through to the Super Sixes.
By limiting such speculation to only South Africa’s prospects, however, the best possible sequence of results for the home team would entail Sri Lanka beating the West Indies on Friday, Kenya beating Bangladesh on Saturday, South Africa beating Sri Lanka on Monday and Kenya losing to the West Indies on Tuesday.
Assuming that New Zealand will overcome Canada on Monday. All of this would mean that South Africa, Kenya, Sri Lanka and New Zealand would finish the round on 16 points.
South Africa and Kenya would qualify by virtue of having two wins each from the matches played among these four teams, while Sri Lanka would go through on the basis of their victory over New Zealand on the second day of the tournament.
The Kiwis would go home, but, more importantly, South Africa would take through full points from their victories over Kenya and Sri Lanka and almost certainly start the Super Six phase placed second to Australia.
Which, for a team that looked to be heading out of the tournament after losing to New Zealand at the Wanderers less than two weeks ago, wouldn’t be a bad outcome at all.