The Western Cape’s three main political parties will be fighting it out in a key by-election in the leafy Swellendam on March 19 — the same day the country could be experiencing the defection shock wave at national and provincial level.
With the National Council of Provinces expected to pass legislation on March 18 which will allow provincial and national legislature members to defect from their political parties, March 19 could be a watershed day in South African politics — but the spotlight will fall on the African National Congress (ANC), the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the New National Party (NNP).
The focus falls on activities in Swellendam — and to a lesser extent nearby Barrydale — which are among 12 by-elections taking place nationwide that day. The by-election battle could coincide with the declaration by President Thabo Mbeki of the start of a 15-day window period for defections. This could see significant shifts and political rearrangements in the nine provinces and in Parliament.
In the 15-day defection period last October at local government level, the DA was the major loser — losing more than 300 councillors to the NNP. Altogether 555 councillors crossed during that period nationwide. The ANC is likely to be the major political benefactor of defections in the upcoming period and in the by-elections it will be seeking to prove that it is on the road to winning an overall majority in the Western Cape. The DA and NNP will be fighting for the mantle of major Western Cape challenger to the ANC — a position held by the NNP until now.
The Swellendam by-election will be a test of NNP mettle in particular — amidst ongoing corruption cases against former NNP Premier Peter Marais and former MEC David Malatsi — and a chance for the DA to prove a newly-found resilience after last year’s ”annus horribilis” — as it was described by party leader Tony Leon — which saw party fortunes flagging amid the Harksen/Morkel funding debacle.
The ANC will be looking to improve its strong showing in the province, having won 42% of the provincial vote in 1999 and 39,7% in the municipal election in the province in 2000.
The ANC, DA and NNP — together with the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) — are
fighting for the Swellendam ward four — where the sitting NNP incumbent Martha
van Zyl died in December. The ANC and PAC are fighting a DA backed independent
in Barrydale, a seat won in the 2000 municipal election by the ANC.
Van Zyl had returned home to the NNP last October having been elected a DA councillor for the area in 2000 — when the NNP and Democratic Party were one party.
DA MP James Selfe admitted that Swellendam was going to be a tight race. In the 2000 municipal election the DA got 61.8% of the vote (860 votes), the ANC 28,4% (396 votes) and the PAC 6,4% (90 votes).
With the NNP now standing, the DA vote is expected to be squeezed and Cameron Dugmore, ANC provincial MP and provincial coordinator for Overberg, said his party had ”managed to register extra voters; we are looking at an improved performance”.
He said his party had not set its sights on winning but he also acknowledged it would be a close contest. The NNP also believes it will be close, but Swellendam is the only by-election it is fighting. Its executive director Daryl Swanepoel said each
by-election had to be assessed on its merits.
Asked why the ANC and NNP were opposing each other despite their political agreement to co-govern in the Western Cape, he said his party had made no secret that it would be fighting the next election in 2004 as a separate party from the ANC. The ANC was clearly standing in Swellendam as a ”tactical consideration”, he said.
In the Barrydale seat — ward two — the incumbent ANC member John Nortje took up a new job and left local politics. He won the seat with 52% of the vote or 829 votes to the DA’s 710 or 44,9% while the PAC won 2,5% (40 votes) in 2000.
With the DA this time backing Independent Riaan Marais against the ANC’s Petrus Kees, it could be a right race but Dugmore says the ANC aims to retain the seat. He expected many NNP supporters in Barrydale to back the ANC. The PAC is also standing in Barrydale but is not regarded as a serious contender.
The Swellendam seat is about 50% coloured and black and 50% white while the Barrydale seat is about 65% coloured and black. DA support is traditionally concentrated in white areas, with the ANC predominant in black areas. How the coloured vote falls will likely determine the winning parties in the Barrydale seat in particular.
The other eight by-elections are being held in Umzimkhulu, Tshwane (Pretoria), Durban-Ethekwini, Abqulusi/Vryheid, Ingwe/Creighton, Msukaligwa/Ermelo, Nkhondo/Piet Retief, Klerksdorp, and Ba-Phalaborwa. The ANC has won two seats unopposed in Nketoana/Reitz and Kai!Garib/Keimoes. – I-Net Bridge