It’s starting to look like India

On Monday Sachin Tendulkar passed his own record for most runs in a single world cup, and with potentially three more games to play he looks like setting a record that is going to stand for a very long time. With his 97 batting first against Sri Lanka, Tendulkar passed the previous best of 523 he scored in the 1996 tournament, ending the day with 571 and counting.

Tendulkar aside, however, the Indian bowling has come into its own this World Cup, and is just getting better and better. Jay Srinath has moved up to fourth on the most wickets table, and is bowling quicker than I’ve seen him bowl for a couple of years, while producing good swing on an accurate line. Zaheer Khan has proved a revelation, and has sealed his place for a long time as opening bowler for India with his performances of the last few weeks.

Ashish Nehra continues to bowl well since his awesome performance against England in the group stages, and the only real surprise is the failure of the spin twins, Kumble and Harbhajan. They’ve had very little effect on this world cup, despite Sri Lanka’s Muralitharan proving that there is more than enough here for a good turner of the ball.

But the name of the Indian game has been tight swing bowling — a trend begun by Chaminda Vaas — and it’s proving impossible to face when bowled well. If nothing else this world cup has shown just the type of bowler you need for South African wickets: quick (but not necessarily devastatingly so) with swing, pitching just short of a length. The amount of LBW’s this tournament are testament to this, with vast hordes of batsmen getting trapped on the crease to viciously in-swinging balls.

India’s Sachin Factor would be totally negated if the bowling wasn’t up to par, but as it stands the bowling is second only to Australia’s at the moment, and the batting almost as good. India are looking very, very strong, and the good news for them is that they will in all likelihood end up second in the standings after the Super Sixes, which means they won’t have to play Australia in the semifinal.

And trust me — you don’t want to play Australia in the semifinal.

The first-placed team after the Super Sixes plays the fourth-placed, and the second and third placed teams slug it out, and the winners of these two games play in the final. Although there are still a number of permutations as to who might go through to the semifinals, Australia and India are definitely through, which means there are still two places up for grabs.

Despite losing their second game of the Super Sixes Sri Lanka are still looking most likely to be going through, with either Kenya or New Zealand. I can’t see Zimbabwe making it, but I can see the Kiwis beating either Australia or India (my money’s on them beating Aus today – blame the Cape Town sun for my heatstroke if you must). Of all teams who could possibly beat the Aussies at this stage the Kiwis are the most likely, considering their good record against their neighbours last year, as well as their predilection for doing well in tight situations.

Were India to play Sri Lanka again they would beat them again — the fire appears to have gone out of the Sri Lankan cause, which earlier in the tournament had blazed pretty brightly. Should India meet New Zealand in the semifinals (their game on Friday will be a good barometer) it will be a different kettle of fish, but I believe India will be too good for the Kiwis.

Australia will naturally kill anyone they meet in the semis, which means our most likely scenario for the final is India vs Australia. And based on the current form of each you would have to bet on a pretty good game to end the showpiece.

India would simply have to be your current choice to dethrone the Aussies, as they are the only ones with the arsenal capable of doing so. They have class batsmen in a top order that looks even better than the Aussies’ on paper, and while Australia definitely have the edge in the bowling department that will come to nought should Sachin fire.

And good bowling aside, Sachin holds the key to this world cup. If India should get to the final they could only really expect to win it if Sachin comes off – he has to fire for them to have a chance. Unfortunately — in a final prior form means nothing, as you cannot afford the luxury of having an off-day, making a busy 17 before being held spectacularly at short mid-wicket by Damien Martyn attempting an ill-advised flick off your pads to a slow ball from McGrath.

Christ — there’s a bloody inevitability to all this, I’m afraid. If Tendulkar doesn’t get out in the final in exactly that manner I’ll cut a hole in my wrist and use the bloody circle as an ashtray for a day, I give you my solemn word.

But if Tendulkar fires — let’s say for ultimate fantasy’s sake a run-a-ball ton in the final — I would back the Indian seamers to get Aussie out batting second. Ganguly has matured a lifetime in the space of eight games, spurred on no doubt by the hatred displayed towards him and other team members by rabid fans back home at the start of the tournament, and he has his side believing they can win. They are confident in all departments (even Rahul Dravid is looking better behind the stumps), and if they can beat New Zealand in their final Super Six game I’m pretty sure they can go the whole way.

All of this, however, must be tempered by the Sub-continent Factor: the law which states that no matter how well a side from Asia is currently playing, they are always only 50 overs away from a record-breaking defeat. To be fair Pakistan and Sri Lanka are more prone to this than India, but the Indians have been known to implode inexplicably more than their fair share of times.

Australia, however, are not prone to anything other than exceptional cricket, and if you can produce that you can beat them with ease. The only folks producing exceptional cricket aside from them these days is India, so for the first time in this world cup there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Aussie can be beaten.

Cheers,

The Twelfth Man