Real retail sales rose by 3.6% y/y and increased by 1.3% m/m in January 2003, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Wednesday, after real retail sales rose by 4.5% in 2002.
The 2002 growth rate was the highest since 1995 when real retail sales surged by 6.7%. The 2002 performance builds on recent annual growth as in 2001 real retail sales grew by 3.9% following a 3.5% gain in 2000. Fourteen of the nineteen merchandise categories reflected increases in 2002.
The largest percentage increase in real retail trade sales (at constant 1995 prices) between 2001 and 2002 was reported for men’s and boys’ clothing and accessories (+20,3%), followed by increases reported for ladies’, girls’ and infants’ clothing and accessories (+15,2%), hardware (+11,6%), and glass, crockery, cutlery and kitchenware (+9,3%).
These increases were partially counteracted by decreases reported for jewellery, silverware, watches and precious stones (-10,5%), domestic appliances (-3,2%), household furniture (-2,5%), perishable and processed food products (-1,9%) and alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages (-1,8%).
Cash sales comprised 77.6% of total sales for 2002. This is 0,9 of a percentage point higher than the 76,7% for 2001. Hire purchases as a percentage of total sales decreased by 0,4 of a percentage point (from 9,5% to 9,1%), while other credit sales as a percentage of total sales decreased by 0,5 of a percentage point (from 13,8% to 13,3%) during this period.
The 2002 gain comes despite a 400 basis points increase in interest rates last year, but the large annual gain hides the fact that real seasonally adjusted retail sales have been trending lower since May 2002.
Real seasonally adjusted retail sales in January 2003 were 0,6% lower than the record set in May 2002, after they had been down 2,9% in December 2002 on May 2002.
Seasonally adjusted real retail trade sales (at constant 1995 prices) for the fourth quarter of 2002 had reflected a decrease of 0,9% compared with the third quarter of 2002, but were 2,1% more than the fourth quarter of 2001.
Seasonally adjusted real retail trade sales for the three months up to January 2003 on the other hand reflected an increase of 0,2% compared with the three months up to October 2002 due to the large 1,3% jump in January on December.
Six of the nineteen merchandise categories reflected increases in seasonally adjusted real retail trade sales for the three months up to January 2003 compared with the three months up to October 2002. The largest percentage increase was reported for domestic appliances (+3,9%), followed by increases reported for “all other” (+3,7%), inedible groceries (+2,7%) and footwear for men, ladies and children (+1,9%).
These increases were partially counteracted by decreases reported for jewellery, silverware, watches and precious stones (-7,4%), textiles and haberdashery (-1,6%), sport and recreation requisites (-1,4%) and men’s and boys’ clothing and accessories (-1,4%).
Cash sales comprised 79,4% of total sales for January 2003. This is 1,7 percentage points higher than the 77,7% for January 2002.
The household debt to disposable income ratio peaked at 61.2% in the first quarter of 1998 after having grown from less than 50% in 1988. It was last at 51,0% in the fourth quarter 2002. – I-Net Bridge