The day after several bomb blasts rocked Soweto in October last year, South Africans were shocked to learn of the existence of the Boeremag.
The quick arrest of many of those allegedly behind the group’s activities gave the impression that the Boeremag had been defeated.
But is the threat really over or are we experiencing the proverbial calm before the storm?
The police believe the threat has been sufficiently contained. In spite of this, police National Commissioner Jackie Selebi says the South African Police Service will not let its guard down.
Selebi’s representative Selby Bokaba said: ”We are constantly monitoring their [Boeremag members] activities, with intelligence watching their every step.
”It would be premature to dismiss them because we have arrested the leaders but I don’t think we will ever be found wanting. The majority of Afrikaners do not believe in violence and instead prefer to follow proper channels to raise grievances,” added Bokaba.
University of the Witwatersrand politics lecturer Dr Steve Louw believes the Boeremag has been pretty much contained.
”Obviously the government must take any security threat seriously. But I personally doubt whether the Boeremag has any support among white conservatives. I also doubt whether the Boeremag has the sophistication to be a threat to this country,” Louw added.
”It is an overrated threat with no meaningful capacity. If you look at how quickly the leaders were arrested, you will realise that the police have a good informer network and powerful intelligence on the ground.”
But analyst Henri Boschoff of the Institute of Security Studies argues that the Boeremag could ignite a racial war if it is not sufficiently monitored.
In a book titled Volk, Faith and Fatherland, Boschoff and co-writer Martin Schönteich argue: ”A number of powerful bombs, strategically placed, could cause considerable harm to South Africa’s fragile economy.
The assassination of a handful of Cabinet ministers and popular black political or religious leaders could take the country to the brink of a race war.”
The two point out that the Boeremag tries to capitalise on issues of popular discontent such as levels of crime and affirmative action to justify the need for an independent Afrikaner state. ”Given the real high levels of violent crime, rising white unemployment and the campaign against white farmers in Zimbabwe, such arguments may be capable of eliciting widespread sympathy among conservatively minded Afrikaners.”
However, Boschoff and Schonteich acknowledge that many Afrikaners are no longer interested in politics and that those that were lost what little morale they had after Afrikanerweerstandsbeweging leader Eugene Terre’blanche was jailed.
Presidency representative Smuts Ngonyama said the Boeremag was regarded as a real threat.
”They have already killed one person and they have the capacity to kill many more.
”They are a threat to society because of their indoctrination that blacks are sub-human and therefore cannot govern this country.
”The law must take its course and these people must be dealt with severely,” Ngonyama said.