Minorities are more reluctant to vote in the next national election in South Africa — scheduled for 2004 — than their black counterparts, according to a Markinor poll conducted for the South African Broadcasting Corporation.
This signals a political battle particularly for opposition parties — where minority voters are at present concentrated — in next year’s poll.
Fieldwork for the poll conducted from April 2 to 30 this year among 3 500 respondents countrywide among 18-year-olds or older shows that a growing number of whites, coloureds and Indians indicated that they had decided not to vote since the advent of democracy in 1994.
Although Markinor political analyst Anneke Greyling said that more analysis of the figures was needed in the coming months, it showed that there was a ”gatvol” factor (switched off from politics) operating among minority voters.
She suggested voters were confused by the defection period — in which politicians had switched political homes — and by different alliances formed by opposition parties.
During the defection period the ruling African National Congress — and to a lesser extent — the official opposition Democratic Alliance, benefited the most from floor crossing.
Altogether 65% of respondents said they had voted in the national election of 1994 — the first democratic election. Whites had the highest participation level in that election — 70% voted. Indians notched up a percentage of 66%, coloureds just 61% and blacks 65%. A high proportion (23%) of blacks said they were not eligible to vote (for example, because they were under 18) compared to just 15% for whites and 26% for coloureds in that election. Altogether 22% of Indians were not eligible to vote.
Significantly only two percent of blacks had ”decided not to vote” in 1994 — in the poll which first brought the African National Congress to power — while whites and Indians notched up 6% and coloureds 5%.
In the 1995/96 municipal election (nationwide) the number of blacks who had voted dropped to 57% while the number of whites dropped more dramatically to 62%. The coloured vote had dropped to 52% and Indians to 57%. Blacks who decided not to vote rose to 6%, but the whites who decided not to vote jumped to 12%, coloureds jumped to 10% and Indians by 14%.
The 1999 national election (for national parliament and the provincial legislatures) saw 67% of respondents indicate that they had voted — up from 65% in 1994 — with just 7% saying they had opted not to vote. Ineligibility to vote had dropped from 22% in 1994 to 15% in 1999 for all race groups.
Significantly, black participation was up from 65% in 1994 to 68% in 1999, white participation dropped from 70% to 65%. Coloured participation dropped from 61% to 57% while Indian participation dropped from 66% to 62%. Perhaps more significantly, 14% of whites opted not to vote in 1999.
In addition, 13% of coloureds decided not to vote in addition to 14% of Indians.
Markinor says these findings did not bode well for the 2004 national election — expected to take place in March or April of next year — especially among those not registered to vote in 1999.
Markinor reports that when asked about their likelihood to register for the next poll, a quarter (24%) of coloured voters — a pivotal constituency in the Western Cape which had kept the province in opposition hands — and a third of Indian voters (33%) and more than four in every 10 white voters (42%) indicated they were not likely to register.
Only two in 10 black voters (19%) indicated they were not likely to register to vote. – I-Net Bridge