The case against former champions South Africa winning the Rugby World Cup is simple to construct.
Start with record defeats against France (30-10 in Marseille), Scotland (21-6 in Edinburgh), England (53-3 in London) and New Zealand (52-16 in Pretoria) during the past 12 months.
Continue with the absence through injury of utility players Andre Pretorius and Brent Russell, two unpredictable talents in a backline desperately lacking imagination.
The draw offered no favours either, placing the Springboks in Group C with rampant England, and the equally formidable New Zealand All Blacks await the pool runners-up in the quarter-finals.
Then came ‘Geogate’, the racism storm that enveloped the Springbok camp this month with white Geo Cronje kicked out for refusing to share a room and shower with fellow lock Quinton Davids, a coloured player.
If that did not suffice to depress even the most diehard supporter of the green and gold, injuries in warm-up matches forced centre Gcobani Bobo and replacement, Jean de Villiers, to withdraw from the quadrennial showpiece.
The case for Springbok skipper Corne Krige lifting the William Webb Ellis trophy in Sydney on November 22 hinges on how much faith can be placed in the words of embattled coach Rudolf Straeuli.
A member of the 1995 World Cup-winning squad, the media-shy former number eight insists there is a bigger picture and that he must be judged on results in Australia.
Hopeful signs were the 26-22 home victory over world champions Australia in the Tri-Nations championship and a keenly contested 19-11 away loss to the All Blacks in the same competition.
But the overwhelming view among South African followers is that England will maintain their recent supremacy when the countries clash in Perth on October 18, and the Boks are given little chance of overcoming the All Blacks either.
It is a situation that annoys veteran scrum-half Joost van der Westhuizen, sole survivor of the 1995 champions and captain when the Springboks finished third behind Australia and France four years ago.
”South Africans are interested only in winners and when we return home with the trophy they’ll all suddenly become Springbok supporters again,” noted the veteran of a record 85 Test appearances.
Straeuli, who has rarely come close to a settled starting line-up during his two-year reign, says he knows his first-choice players, but is not letting many in on the secret.
There is no shortage of candidates for the full-back berth with Thinus Delport probably in pole position ahead of late inclusion Jaco van der Westhuysen, Jaque Fourie, Ricardo Loubscher and Werner Greeff.
Stefan Terblanche, one of three survivors from the 1999 World Cup, and the more exciting Ashwin Willemse look the likely choices on the wings with De Wet Barry and Jorrie Muller inside them.
Fly-half Louis Koen, one of the most accurate goal kickers in world rugby with a success rate often above 80%, is the logical partner for van der Westhuizen.
It is a solid rather than spectacular unit that, on paper, seems vastly inferior to those of England and New Zealand, who have cruelly exposed the defensive frailties of the Springboks.
South Africa can boast a powerful tight five with loose head Lawrence Sephaka, tight head Richard Bands, hooker Danie Coetzee and locks Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha.
The welcome for Botha in Australia is unlikely to be warm, though, as he was accused of biting and eye gouging by the Wallabies after a Tri-Nations battle in Brisbane that led to an eight-week ban — that could pale into comparison with the welcome from the home supporters should the Springboks flunk completely and
return home early. – Sapa-AFP