Britain is privately bracing itself for the stalled Doha trade liberalisation talks to miss their 2005 deadline by at least two years and fears the talks may have been totally derailed by the collapse of negotiations in Cancun last month.
A confidential post-mortem examination prepared by the United Kingdom Department of Trade and Industry into the failed meeting warns that root-and-branch reform of the way the World Trade Organisation works could be necessary following the standoff between the West and a coalition of more than 20 developing countries.
In a downbeat assessment, the department concludes the earliest that substantive talks will resume is 2005, when the United States presidential election is over and a new European Commission is installed.
Britain, it says, is planning to use its presidency of both the European Union and the G8 group of industrial nations in 2005 to kick-start the trade talks again.
The report also reveals that the British government was kept in the dark by the commission — which was negotiating on behalf of Britain and the 14 other EU countries — during the Cancun meeting.
It concludes: ”At the heart of the collapse was a clash between the approach of the EU and US and others, expecting a traditional brinkmanship-style negotiation and the approach of many developing countries who were not willing to play this game.
”Some developing countries [and NGOs] saw the collapse of the talks as a slap in the face for the developed world.” When the talks broke down, ministers sought to salvage something from the wreckage by setting a mid-December deadline for dealing with the unresolved issues in Mexico.
”If this cannot be done — and possibly even if it is done — the Doha round is then likely to languish until early 2005, when a new [European] Commission and a new US adminstration are in place … There would then be a tight two years until the expiry of US fast-track authority in March 2007, which many regard as the real deadline for the end of the round.” — Â