California will witness the conclusion of one unpredictable election campaign today — as another one gets under way.
While Arnold Schwarzenegger is installed as governor in the state capital, Sacramento, campaigning for the other big prize California has to offer — the Oscars — has started in earnest, with pundits tipping epic dramas as likely winners.
Although the results will not be announced until next year, studios are already spending and lobbying hard.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has introduced stricter rules to limit campaigning but most studios are adept at finding ways round them.
This year’s race has been clouded by the row over who will see ”screeners”, the videos and DVDs of contenders traditionally sent to academy members. A compromise has been reached allowing members to receive videos as long as they do not lend them even to family members on the pain of expulsion. The studios had aimed not to send out any screeners, citing piracy fears, but relented after claims this would damage the chances of small, independent films.
Contenders and long shots have already emerged, with Patrick Goldstein, the LA Times film critic, publishing his own odds. He places the drama Mystic River, directed by Clint Eastwood, as favourite for best picture (6-1), and the last of the Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Return of the King, at 8-1. His third is Anthony Minghella’s Cold Mountain, a £59-million American civil war epic with Nicole Kidman, Jude Law and Renee Zellweger.
Goldstein’s other contenders, with odds ranging from 14-1 to 22-1, are the animated film Finding Nemo; The House of Sand and Fog, a modern drama starring Ben Kingsley and Jennifer Connelly; Master and Commander, a Peter Weir film with Russell Crowe based on Patrick O’Brian’s novels; and Ed Zwick’s The Last Samurai, starring Tom Cruise.
”It’s going to be harder this year for smaller movies,” said Goldstein, suggesting there was a large, older constituency among the academy’s 5 816 voters who might favour traditional historical dramas.
Emmanuel Levy, the author of Oscar Fever, a history of the awards, said this year’s output represented a return of the traditional Hollywood epic. ”Mainstream Hollywood is staging a big comeback, with high-profile, big-budget films,” he said. ”We are going to see the return of the epic.”
His tips as nominees were: Master and Commander, Lord of the Rings and Mystic River. Outside bets, said Levy, were Seabiscuit, the story of the racehorse starring Jeff Bridges; Lost in Translation, directed by Sofia Coppola and starring Bill Murray; and In America, the Jim Sheridan film about a family arriving in the US. Big Fish (Ewan MacGregor, Albert Finney), was also a possible, he said.
Levy suggested Peter Weir, Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings) and Clint Eastwood as nominees for best director.
Bill Murray, best known for his comedy work, was a likely nominee for best actor in his role as a weary film star making a commercial in Tokyo in Lost In Translation. Levy said Murray would be joined by Tom Cruise, as a favourite son who had yet to win, Russell Crowe and Sean Penn, who has the lead role in Mystic River but who may scare off conservative voters with his outspoken anti-war views — some members were unhappy when Michael Moore delivered an anti-Bush speech at this year’s ceremony.
Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) also has supporters. In this category, too, Paul Giamatti has been mentioned by many critics and members as a long shot for his role as real-life comics writer, Harvey Pekar, in American Splendour. However, the fact this is a small, low-budget film may count against him. Michael Caine (The Statement) is another potential nominee.
Naomi Watts is Levy’s choice for best actress for her part in 21 Grams — in a year where there has been a shortage, again, of good lead roles for women. Gwyneth Paltrow as Sylvia Plath in Sylvia was another possibility. Others include Charlotte Rampling for The Swimming Pool, Helen Mirren for Calendar Girls and Diane Keaton for the still-to-be released Something’s Gotta Give, in which she stars with Jack Nicholson and Keanu Reeves. Charlize Theron has also been suggested for her role as serial killer Eileen Wuornos in Monster.
Peter Rainer, a critic at New York magazine and chairman of the National Society of Film Critics, said smaller films such as American Splendour might suffer from the decision by some groups of critics not to award prizes as a protest against the row over screeners.
Rainer tipped Cold Mountain, Master and Commander, Seabiscuit, and Lord of the Rings. He said Cate Blanchett could feature as best actress for playing the murdered Irish journalist, Veronica Guerin.
Variety, which has published its own 27 contenders, concluded that ”this year, more than ever, it’s anyone’s guess”. – Guardian Unlimited Â