The Inkatha Freedom Party and its leader, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, enter the coming election fighting to keep control of KwaZulu-Natal, and their future as a national political force.
The African National Congres has made it clear it intends to win control of KwaZulu-Natal — where the legislature is finely balanced between the ANC and the IFP/Democratic Alliance coalition — in the next election. The race in the province is too close to call, with little separating the two sides.
The IFP will launch its election manifesto in Durban this Sunday.
Political analyst Protas Madlala says there is a clear element of Zulu pride involved in the IFP’s quest to hold on to the province. ”If they are to lose it [KwaZulu-Natal], the Zulus [in the IFP’s view] would have lost the war.” ”KwaZulu-Natal is part of [Buthelezi]. If he were to lose there, it would be like losing part of himself.”
Despite having all the trappings of a modern political party, much of the IFP’s support rests on the perception of it as a Zulu nationalist party, something that has strong appeal in parts of KwaZulu-Natal, especially rural areas.
Being a regional political party is nothing to be ashamed of, says Steven Friedman, senior researcher at the Centre for Policy Studies. But the IFP should be concerned about declining support from outside its rural and ”traditionalist” constituencies. ”We [South Africans] are going through an urbanisation process and the IFP could see itself marginalised,” he explains.
However, while KwaZulu-Natal remains the stronghold of IFP support — alongside parts of Mpumalanga province and migrant workers in Gauteng — it is also South Africa’s third-biggest political party and second most popular among black South Africans, according to some opinion polls. The party also holds three national Cabinet posts, offered to the party by the ruling ANC in the interests of national unity.
But of late relations between the IFP and the ANC have been rocky. Buthelezi has consistently complained that he has been treated badly by his Cabinet colleagues. And in the face of persistent efforts by the ANC to take control of the KwaZulu-Natal provincial government — dominated by the IFP — Buthelezi formed a coalition with South Africa’s official opposition, the DA, to keep control of the province. The DA and the IFP also entered into an alliance nationally under the banner of a ”Coalition for Change”, with the express purpose of opposing the ANC.
In the face of rocky IFP/ANC relations, the coalition with the DA makes good political sense. The DA was a ”congenial home” for many voters who do not like the ANC, says Friedman.
And the coalition may be the vehicle to firmly entrench Buthelezi as a national player, making it harder to dismiss him as a ”bantustan leader”, as some in the ruling party are wont to do.
But to remain an equal partner in the coalition with the DA, especially outside KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP needs to do well in this election. The IFP also needs to convince the ANC that it is worth it to keep the party in the national government in the interests of political stability.
Under the motto of the ”voters’ choice” the manifesto is expected to centre on action on HIV/Aids, crime, poverty and stimulating job creation and economic growth.
IFP spokesperson Musa Zondi says the election manifesto would take ”a no-holds-barred approach”. This means, for example, treating HIV/ Aids as a national crisis. There are still doubts about ”whether [the ANC] will follow its words with action” on the promised anti-retroviral roll-out or spend the next five years building the necessary infrastructure, says Zondi. President Thabo Mbeki and his Minister of Health, Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, have questioned the effectiveness of anti-retrovirals in easing the effects of HIV and Aids and reducing the spread of the disease.
Analysts expect the manifesto also to stress moral issues, better living standards under the ANC government, and the role of amaKhosi, the traditional leaders whom Buthelezi usually can call upon for support.
In recent months the veteran politician has talked much about South Africa’s ”unfinished liberation” in the face of the country’s massive and persistent social problems. While he has steered clear of the DA’s aggressive criticism of the government, Buthelezi has repeatedly cautioned against an overwhelming ANC victory in the election and has called for ”a new leadership”.
The IFP dismissed ANC attempts to win control of the province. ”It does not give shivers down the spine,” said Zondi.