Mbeki avoids fireworks

South African President Thabo Mbeki avoided fireworks in his State of the Nation speech on Friday, but gave reassurances on his government misusing a potential two-thirds majority in the next election while promising that the stability of the past 10 years will be maintained.

Mbeki went out of his way in the speech to advise the public that the South African government has made good economic progress in reducing inflation, recording consistent positive growth, reducing public sector debt and eliminating the deficit on the net open foreign currency position (NOFP). He pledged that these policies will continue.

Mbeki appeared to avoid an election tub-thumbing experience — with National Assembly Speaker Frene Ginwala announcing that Mbeki will propose the date of the parliamentary and provincial elections at the start of the debate on his address on the National Assembly on Monday afternoon. Mbeki was scheduled to make this announcement on Wednesday.

Official opposition Democratic Alliance leader Tony Leon — perhaps the most forthright and cutting opponent of the government but viewed by ruling African National Congress officials as too ascerbic in his tone — said: ”The president said that all is well. And that it would be more of the same, with no changes in policies, which we would say is a very defensive posture.”

He echoed African Christian Democratic Party leader Kenneth Meshoe’s view that the president had not addressed the failures of crime and HIV/Aids.

Independent Democrats leader Patricia de Lille said she was glad he had reminded the country of the vision of former President Nelson Mandela.

”But he failed to show a vision of the future. It was also shocking that only once reference was made to HIV/Aids.”

Mbeki also avoided making direct reference on the vexed question of Zimbabwe, referring instead for the need to change one’s neighbourhoods.

He said: ”Other regions of the world, including the most developed countries, are hard at work to change their neighbourhoods for the better, We can only ignore or minimise the task with regard to ourselves at our own peril, driven by a lingering sense that we are not an integral part of the African continent. This we will not do.”

Mbeki noted that 10 years ago: South Africa was in its 21st year of double-digit inflation; the country had experienced three years of negative growth; it had seen more than a decade of declining gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the Budget deficit was equal to 9,5% of GDP, the NOFP was $25-billion in deficit; and public sector debt equaled 64% of GDP.

A decade later, however: Inflation is down to 4% measured by headline consumer inflation less mortgage costs (CPIX), or less than 1% in terms of headline CPI; the country is experiencing the longest period of consistent positive growth since the GDP was properly recorded in the 1940s; the NOFP recorded a surplus of $4,7-billion at the end of 2003; and public sector debt has fallen to less than 50% of GDP.

”The statistics … tell the real story of what we have done and had to do to create the people-centred society that has been central to the work of both our first and second democratic governments,” Mbeki said. ”The answer we have given and will continue to give to the question of whether we have made progress with regard to the fundamental tasks of which [former president] Nelson Mandela spoke [in his first State of the Nation address] on May 24 1994 is a resounding yes!”

The president noted consistent calls for him to reassure the public by declaring that he would not seek a third term in 2009. He noted that doomsayers were predicting after the elections that radical constitutional amendments would be made.

”The masses of our people sacrified everything to achieve peace and democracy for all of us. These masses will not allow that desperate politicians do desperate things to win or retain power for themselves.”

The Constitution limits the term of office of the president to two terms. — I-Net Bridge