Picking a premier

Ask any senior African National Congress official who is going to be in the next Cabinet or who will lead the provinces, and they will tell you: ”Chief, the president is unpredictable.”

Choosing the premiers in those provinces the ANC wins in the coming election — definitely seven of the nine, and with a fighting chance in the remaining two — is the prerogative of the ANC and South African President Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki and the ANC have made it clear that they will not name their premiers until after the election.

Officially, the ANC says this is because the premiers have no leading role to play in an election campaign, which will be run by the organisation. Unofficially, there are murmurs that Mbeki is keeping his options open for as long as possible, to see if he can use the premier posts to solve some sticky political problems in the ANC.

There has, for example, been open speculation that Mbeki may try and resolve the problem of what to do with Deputy President Jacob Zuma, who has been implicated in corruption in the government’s multibillion-rand arms deal, by making him the premier of KwaZulu-Natal.

However, Mbeki can only make this move once he knows whether the ANC has won control of the province, where the party is in a neck-and-neck race with an Inkatha Freedom Party-Democratic Alliance coalition for control.

Using the lists of candidates for the provincial elections, and canvassing the ranks of the organisation, the Mail & Guardian has drawn up a list of the people most likely to lead the provinces after the April poll.

Western Cape

ANC provincial leader Ebrahim Rasool has been the perennial runner-up for premiership, having led the ANC in the province during the last two elections.

Often accused of lacking the charisma needed by a political leader during elections, Rasool heads the list of ANC candidates for the provincial legislature. He is followed by the provincial safety and security minister, Leonard Ramatlakane, also not seen in all quarters as having strong leadership qualities.

Another provincial ANC leader mentioned as a possibility for the premier’s post is Lynne Brown, the speaker of the provincial legislature and an unsuccessful ANC candidate for mayor of Cape Town. An activist in the ANC Women’s League in the province, she has support in the predominantly African townships as well as in the coloured community.

While the ANC has made it clear it hopes to win control of the province outright in the coming election, the plethora of small parties in the province makes this unlikely.

As a result, it is likely to have to stay in coalition with the NNP if it is to remain in the provincial government. This means the current premier, the NNP’s Marthinus van Schalkwyk, may be able to hang on to his job. Van Schalkwyk has hardly moved out of the Western Cape during this election, spending most of his time campaigning there in an effort to shore up his position.

Free State

Popular ANC provincial chairperson Elias ”Ace” Magashule is at the top of the ANC list of candidates for the Free State, and probably expects that he will not be overlooked by Mbeki this time around. He was previously passed over for the job because of allegations that he was involved in power struggles in the ANC in the province.

But, although Magashule is on top of the provincial list and the current ANC Premier, Winkie Direko, is earmarked for the National Assembly, his supporters are not taking his premiership for granted. In some quarters of the ANC head office there is a belief that Magashule represents a dominant faction in the Free State and is not a unifying force in the divided province.

Many serving provincial ministers have not made it to the top 30 ANC candidates to the provincial legis-lature and they are likely to be replaced by Magashule’s supporters if he becomes premier.

North West

The imminent departure of two-term Premier Popo Molefe opens the way for a host of other candidates who can replace the incumbent. Umkhonto weSizwe veteran and long-time ANC Women’s League leader Thandi Modise is leaving the national Parliament to be nearer her home in North West. But the most senior woman on the provincial list is the province’s agriculture minister, Edna Molewa. She is also the ANC Women’s League provincial chairperson and a former MP. Mbeki is thought to be eager to appoint women as premiers where possible. However, the provincial candidate list is headed by minister for local government Darkey Africa, who would also be a popular choice.

Limpopo

In Limpopo, provincial public works minister Collins Chabane, health minister Sello Moloto, and sports, arts and culture minister Joyce Mashamba are at the top of the list and all appear to have an equal chance of getting the top job. Moloto has the number one spot. He has an advantage because he is also the chairperson of the South African Communist Party in the province and has a fair record as the provincial minister of health.

Chabane, on the other hand, is a member of the ANC national executive committee and is highly regarded by the organisation’s national leadership. Mashamba is the deputy chairperson of the ANC in the province and a leading woman candidate.

Expectations that Deputy Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Rejoyce Mabudafhasi might assume the premiership were dashed because her name now appears on the provincial to national list, ruling her out.

Mpumalanga

Incumbent ANC Premier Ndaweni Mahlangu is a lacklustre character who does not have his own support base within the organisation in the province. As a result, he appears to rely on dubious characters, such as provincial public works minister Steve Mabona, to shore up his position. He is not a popular candidate for the premiership.

Mpumalanga safety and security minister Thabang Makwetla was deployed to the province by the ANC head office two years ago, in part to quell infighting and bring stability to the organisation. It remains to be seen whether he will be rewarded for a job well done.

Heading the provincial list of candidates is Siphosezwe Masango, who was recently promoted to the post of provincial health minister. Masango has been provincial secretary and has stayed above the infighting that has characterised the politics in the province.

KwaZulu-Natal

As indicated earlier, there is widespread speculation in the ranks of the ANC that Zuma might be moved into the top job in the province if the organisation wins the election. The ANC has announced that it is going all out to win the province and if it does it will need a strong man and peacemaker — in one — to run the volatile province.

The deployment to the province of Zuma, who has been described as possibly the only ANC candidate who would be acceptable to the IFP, will also give the national government space to deal with the allegations that the deputy president was involved in corruption in its arms procurement programme. Zuma has solid support in the ranks of the ANC in the province, although — for now — provincial transport minister S’bu Ndebele is the ANC’s premier choice. He is contesting what is likely to be a tightly fought election against the current Premier, the IFP’s Lionel Mtshali.

Northern Cape

Here the race is between provincial education minister Tina Joemat-Pettersson and provincial health minister and ANC national executive committee member Dipuo Peters. The prospects of the two were assisted by John Block, whose love of jazz compromised his integrity and ended his popular run for the top job.

Joemat-Pettersson has been the quintessential hard worker and has concentrated on making her department the best in the country. Granted, she has the smallest number of pupils to deal with, but she has left the political rhetoric to the party hacks and got down to business. She heads the provincial list.

Peters is a popular ANC Youth League veteran who has come through the organisation’s structures and is considered the most senior ANC official in the province after departing Premier Manne Dipico. In terms of ANC protocol, this counts greatly in her favour.

Eastern Cape

Premier Makhenkesi Stofile should consider himself very lucky. Seemingly likely to be returned to office, Stofile, for all his goodwill, has presided over a chaotic government, as patients in hospitals went without food, and pensioners battled to receive their pensions and pupils their textbooks. Things got so bad that the national government felt it prudent to help him by sending an administrative team to sort things out.

Initial speculation has been that the ANC might deploy Deputy Minister of Finance Mandisi Mpahlwa to head the province, which appears to be in dire need of some proper financial controls. Stofile heads the list of candidates for the provincial legislature.

Gauteng