Glum outlook for UDM and NNP

Bantu Holomisa’s United Democratic Party and the New National Party, led by Marthinus van Schalkwyk, appeared to be the big losers as the final counting for the 2004 polls drew closer on Thursday night.

The UDM surprised many during the 1999 election when barely 20 months after its formation it was among the ranks of South Africa’s four main political parties.

Many then believed the party might, in future, even become the official black opposition to the ruling African National Congress.

Two years after it was established, the UDM took official opposition seats in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo and gained seats in six other provincial legislatures, after the 1999 general election.

The party was seen as a threat to the ANC’s political heartland in the Eastern Cape as the province continued its slide into total chaos, troubled by a lack of service delivery.

The UDM’s growing support in the province was also noticed by former president Nelson Mandela, who tried unsuccessfully to persuade Holomisa to rejoin the ANC.

However, the 2004 election results have provided a different picture altogether, as the party has showed a significant decline in its support in almost all the provinces.

By 9.30pm on Thursday the UDM stood at 6,96% in its Eastern Cape stronghold, behind the Democratic Alliance’s 8,81%.

With just more than 80% of the polls counted in the Eastern Cape, the party had not even reached half of the 13,6% it got in 1999.

In Limpopo, where the UDM had also gained significant ground over the years, the party stood at 1,73%. This was way behind the DA’s 3,79%.

At national level, the UDM had soared to fourth position at 2,07% after being ranked much lower for most of the day. Patricia de Lille’s Independent Democrats was fifth at 1,88%.

The UDM suffered a major blow in April last year when six of its senior MPs defected to the ANC as a result of the floor-crossing legislation.

The latest defection to the ANC involving a UDM senior member was that of Kingsley Masemola, the party’s chairperson in Limpopo. Masemola joined the ANC in February this year.

Susan Booysen, professor of politics at the University of Port Elizabeth told the Mail & Guardian Online: ”The decline in the numbers of support for the UDM can be ascribed to some of the internal problems that occurred within the party.”

The New National Party has also experienced a huge decline in its support base. By late Thursday night the party stood at 1,85% nationally, a significant decrease compared with its 6,87% in 1999.

”Unless there is a serious resuscitation act, this might be beginning of the end of the NNP,” said Booysen.

Booysen also expressed misgivings about the continued alliance between the NNP and the ANC in the Western Cape.

”It [the alliance] can do serious damage to the ANC. This is an alliance of a party that is disintegrating while we are watching,” said Booysen.

She also raised doubts about the possibility of the NNP retaining the Western Cape premiership.

”The way I see it, the ANC might want to give Van Schalkwyk the arts and culture post — that is if the Inkatha Freedom Party is not coming back.”