The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) monetary policy committee (MPC) decided on Thursday at the end of a two-day meeting — the second of the year — to leave the repo rate unchanged at 8%.
This means the prime interest rate is to remain steady at 11,5%.
SARB Governor Tito Mboweni said the central expectation of the MPC is that CPIX inflation (headline consumer inflation less mortgage rates) will remain within the target range during the forecast period while the economy continues to pick up momentum.
“Accordingly the MPC has decided to maintain the current monetary policy stance and keep the repo rate unchanged at 8% per annum. The MPC will continue to monitor all the risk factors to the inflation outlook. If the outlook changes, the committee will not hesitate to change the monetary policy stance,” he said.
This is the second time this year the MPC has kept the repo rate steady after cutting by 550 basis points last year.
The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate kept on easing in 2003 despite the five cuts with the real seasonally adjusted GDP growth rate falling from 4,1% year-on-year (y/y) in the third quarter of 2003 to successively lower rates of 3,9%, 3,2%, 2%, 1,3% and only 1% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2003.
The latter rate is half the population growth rate of South Africa, implying that people are becoming poorer on a per capita basis.
SARB research shows that it can take up to eight quarters for the impact of a change in monetary policy to show up in real growth.
Generally, the demand side is more responsive to monetary policy changes, which meant that because the domestic production side was so slow to respond, the extra demand was met from imports, with the result that South Africa swung into a current account deficit in 2003 from a surplus in 2002.
The financial markets have priced in no further rate cuts this year with a strong chance that interest rates will be raised in the fourth quarter of 2004.
Following are economists’ reactions to the decision by the MPC to leave interest rates unchanged.
Monica Ambrosi, economist at Standard Bank: “It was very much expected and there has been no change in his tone. The Bureau for Economic Research survey showed a decline in inflation expectations again, for both this year and next year — so that’s very positive.”
Mike Schussler, economist at Tradek: “I’m very happy with the decision. I think it is one of the better MPC statements that I have seen. The reference in the MPC statement to supply side measures is very pertinent and well done and well said. I think the decision is going to have minimal effect on the bond market and minimal effect on the rand. Stability is what we need now and I thank the governor for that.”
Colin Garrow, economist at Brait: “The announcement bodes well for the markets and is in line with market expectations. However, it’s pretty much immature to discount interest-rate hikes for the year at this stage. Maybe we’ll have to wait and see what happens in the next quarter or the last quarter. It’s no surprise at all.”
Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the Efficient Group: “The decision is what I expected, but from his statement, the governor seems very dovish. I would have thought him to be more hawkish — he sounds far too dovish for my liking.” — I-Net Bridge