Botswana’s October 30 parliamentary and local government election is bound to resemble South Africa’s April poll in one major respect — we already know the winner. The hegemony of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) in the country’s politics will assure it of victory — as it has in seven consecutive general elections since 1965.
And, as in South Africa, there will be no suspicion of vote-rigging or electoral fraud in a country that is internationally acclaimed as a stable, liberal democracy. Electoral malpractice is not at issue, it is the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) electoral model coupled with a fragmented opposition, which guarantees the BDP victory.
The main opposition will come from the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), the New Democratic Front (NDF), and an election coalition comprising the Botswana National Front (BNF), the Botswana’s Peoples’ Party (BPP) and the Botswana Alliance Movement (BAM).
Under the FPTP electoral system, the country is divided into constituencies, which elect a member of Parliament from the candidates fielded by the political parties.
The FPTP model disproportionately rewards the dominant party. Consider the outcome of the 1999 elections: out of 354 466 valid ballots cast, the BDP got 192 598 (54,3%) votes, but that entitled it to 33 (82,5%) of the parliamentary seats. In contrast, the BNF won 87 457 (24,7%) and the BCP 40 096 (11,3%) of the total votes, but only claimed six (15%) and one (2,5%) of the seats respectively. This is a clear demonstration of how unfair the FPTP system is in terms of party representation in Parliament.
If the proportional representation model had been applied in 1999, the BDP would have held 54% of the parliamentary seats, and the BNF and BCP’s seat allocation would have been proportionate to their actual electoral support.
Botswana has done extremely well to institutionalise democracy, but it needs to address the reality that the BDP enjoys unlimited access to state resources, including skewed coverage of party campaigns in the media.
The majority of opposition parties, including the BCP and the election coalition, boycotted a conference in July to consider the list of applicants for the new Independent Electoral Commission. Part of their dissatisfaction is that the election date politically remains the secret weapon of the ruling party. President Festus Mogae dissolved Parliament three weeks ago, but only announced the election date last week.
Botswana would enhance the credibility of its election if the poll date is defined clearly and entrenched in the Constitution. Electoral procedures and logistics should be easily predictable, routine and consistent.
Since 2002 the size of Parliament has been increased from 40 to 61 — 57 elected and four appointed by the president. By all indications, the BDP is set to further increase its parliamentary dominance. Under the dominant party system, the opposition is reduced to the role of invited guest to the crowning ceremony of the ruling party during elections.
Mogae will lead Botswana for a second term and is likely to step down just before his time expires to hand over to his vice-president, Ian Khama.
Dr Khabele Matlosa is research director at the Electoral Institute of Southern Africa