The political and security situation in the Great Lakes region has deteriorated over the past decade despite robust intervention by the international community through protocols, peacekeeping missions, bilateral arrangements and development initiatives.
Failure to make an impact has been partly blamed on the inability of state-centred mechanisms to address issues such as the stateless Banyamulenge — a community spread across parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda. Intense competition around questions relating to political transition, ethnicity and nationalism have effectively destroyed the region’s economic and social structure.
The African Union and United Nations have developed an alternative mechanism — the Peace, Security and Stability Pact for the Great Lakes Region — which they hope the core countries — Burundi, DRC, Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Zambia — will sign next year.
In order to generate buy-in and ownership from stakeholders, the government and civil society are holding talks that will focus on issues to be tabled for adoption at a Heads of State summit in November.
But for the pact to be effective, it should be broad-based and have influence at national and intra-regional level. It needs to be constructed around two phases that place different responsibilities on local and external actors. The latter must act as guarantors of the process.
The pact must come into operation incrementally, starting with: observance of ceasefires; the restoration of basic law and order; the strengthening of transitional arrangements; the return of internally displaced persons and refugees; the disarmament, demobilisation, resettlement and rehabilitation of armed combatants; and resumption of economic activities and the free movement of people throughout the region.
The lack of stability within states has resulted in intra-regional fighting and the displacement of millions, many of whom seek refuge in neighbouring states.
In Burundi, the 36-month transitional arrangement between Tutsis and Hutus is on the verge of expiring, with key demands — such as establishing a national army, citizenship and claims by the demographically light Tutsi at 15% demanding a 50% share of government posts — still not resolved.
While suggestions have been made to extend the Arusha agreement deadline for another six months after November, the international community is pushing for early elections, prompted by waning donor interest.
In the DRC, the 10 800-strong UN Peacekeeping Mission (Monuc), has since 1999 gone through the full range of peacekeeping options — from monitoring to enforcement — without any meaningful impact.
Assassination attempts on President Joseph Kabila in Kinshasa have continued, while transitional arrangements have been paralysed by a lack of trust and internal bickering.
More significantly, the establishment of a national army has not advanced beyond the 10 military districts that simply confirm that belligerent factions control the regions.
Yet in August UN Secretary General Kofi Annan made an impassioned plea to the Security Council for 24 000 troops and Rapid Mobile Forces equipped with 37 helicopter gun ships to be deployed.
With elections slated for July 2005, predictions for a smooth transition are doubtful.
Tension and a sense of insecurity still grip significant sections of Rwandan society, despite the recent watershed election that confirmed President Paul Kagame’s office.
The escalation of conflict in Northern Uganda, which began 18 years ago, has forced a staggering 1,8-million people into refugee camps with more than 54 000 children seeking succour every night in the local towns for fear of being abducted.
With baited breath, the world awaits the introduction of the Stability Pact for the Great Lakes region as an alternative that comprehensively addresses the protracted security situation in this volatile part of the continent.
Dr Martin Rupiya is senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies