New data suggest economic activity has increased, but this may not translate directly into similar increases in the gross domestic product (GDP), Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said in Pretoria on Wednesday.
Previewing the GDP figures to be announced on November 30, Joe de Beer, manager of national accounts for Stats SA, said while industry has shown a 17% increase and trade a 20% increase, not all sectors have reported increased levels of activity.
Criticised for large revision figures of final GDP results, Stats SA admitted they are not on par with global adjustments to such figures of between zero and 0,3%.
De Beer said that by introducing changes that include a new business index, Stats SA hopes to reduce the need to revise figures by more than 0,5%, as is currently the trend.
Pali Lehohla, Statistician General, explained that the new index — currently based on value-added tax figures and which in the near future will introduce income tax figures — is providing greater coverage and more accurate information.
”It has already improved the figures for construction and manufacturing,” he said.
Describing the gathering of statistics for the GDP as ”a road laden with thorns”, Lehohla said this year’s economy review will be conducted according to results provided by the new index.
Lehohla said the old system had unequal coverage and excluded former homelands. The new index has increased the number of companies surveyed from 450 000 to 700 000.
”In the old system, we had been underestimating the retail and trade sectors by 17%,” he said.
He concluded there is still much work to be done but there has been significant improvement in the collection of raw data.
”There are still gaps,” said Lehohla, citing the construction and services industry as a difficult to assess.
But he said Stats SA is confident the figures coming out of the mining and manufacturing sectors are accurate.
”We believe the GDP figures will as closely as possible reflect what the state of the economy is,” he said. — Sapa