/ 30 October 2004

Play out the election drama

If you aren’t already addicted, take a look at the electoral college vote tracker featured on the Los Angeles Times website. Forget Doom or Grand Theft Auto, this is where it’s at when it comes to interactive computer fun.

This vote tracker offers hours of fun for the mildly obsessed, and for the seriously compulsive politics-watcher a simple way to avoid all other avenues of their life.

Barely a week before D-Day, the presidential contest is so deadlocked that only a fool would predict victory or defeat. However, Vote Tracker allows you to process the outcome.

Once you get past the irksome registration process, you’ll find the vote tracker map on the bottom right of the home page.

Shut the blinds, disconnect the phone; re-loadable drama and intrigue are but a mouse click away.

The map opens up to show the 50 states, colour-coded to match their current allegiance, or left white if still up for grabs. Graze the cursor over any state on the map, and (here’s what makes this site different from lesser models out there) the very latest statewide polling data appears.

Then, armed with nothing but this data and your gut feeling, you get to decide how the game will end. The map creators have been generous in allocating toss-up states, leaving 19 states blank for you to play with.

So you may very quickly give Washington and Oregon to Kerry, Nevada, Arizona and Missouri to Bush. Head east and you’ll have no problem calling New Hampshire (in play until a few days ago) for Kerry, West Virginia for Bush.

The electoral college vote tracker calculator automatically updates the vote tally on the right of your screen. Bush now has 212 to Kerry’s 175.

You may be quite proud of yourself, having whittled down the focus to a dozen states, but this is where the fun really begins; figuring out the last 12 is what separates the men from the boys.

At this point it’s best to step away from the keyboard, crack your knuckles, blow on your fingertips and perform any other good-luck rituals before resuming play.

Let’s start in the industrial Midwest. Michigan was veering towards Bush a couple of weeks ago, then moved back into the Kerry column and is now a dead heat again.

On recent voting history, Michigan should go Kerry’s way. Pennsylvania has tightened up after leaning to Kerry in the past few days, but Nader is not on the ballot, so we’ll give it to Kerry. Neighbouring Ohio should go to Kerry, where he’s holding a slim lead.

Bush and Kerry keep swapping positions in Wisconsin, a state that hasn’t gone for a Republican president since Ronald Reagan. Traditional urban centres have depopulated to form new “exurban” townlets with new voting patterns that will have political scientists reassessing their assumptions there.

To play this game, however, you can’t be afraid of making a few assumptions. Let’s assume Wisconsin breaks precedent and goes to Bush. Let’s give New Mexico — where Kerry has a two-point edge and a friendly governor — to Kerry. Let’s assume Iowa — despite voting Democrat in the past four elections, but where the candidates are neck and neck — finally breaks Bush’s way.

Let’s give Minnesota — deadlocked until this week, but now leaning to Kerry and a solidly Democratic state for more than 30 years — to the Democrat. Let’s predict New Jersey — dead even, but historically Democratic — finally sides with Kerry. And let’s call Colorado — also dead even, but trending Republican in recent elections — for Bush.

Now take a well-deserved break and head to Hawaii. Hawaii is hopelessly tied with 12% undecided. 12%! What are they smoking in Hawaii to make 12% of the electorate incapable of making up their minds? Let’s take a flyer with Hawaii, where Republicans haven’t tasted victory since 1956, and give Hawaii’s four votes to Bush.

Checking our vote tally, we now stand at Kerry 263, Bush 242. Both candidates are looking for the magic minimum of 270 to go over the top. There are 33 votes still to be had: 27 in Florida and six in Arkansas.

Remember to keep breathing. OK, here goes, we’re going for broke now. The latest Arkansas polls have Kerry and Bush tied. Surely Bubba — looking a bit pasty after heart surgery — can still nudge his home state over to Kerry.

So now it’s down to Florida. If Jeb Bush can’t make sure his state votes right for his big brother, it’s going to be an uncomfortable turkey dinner for him at the Bush family Thanksgiving get-together. Recent polls have given the state to both candidates.

If Bush holds Florida the candidates are tied at 269 apiece; a stunning turn of events, the like of which has not happened since 1800, but certainly not out of the question. A helpful pop-up box appears on the screen explaining how the election is now thrown into the hands of a Republican-led Congress. Bottom line, in this scenario, Kerry must take Florida to win.

Or you can reload the map and start again, making for hours more harmless fun until November 2, if the outcome weren’t so momentous, that is. — Guardian Unlimited Â