South African banking group Absa is hoping to almost quadruple the size of its NewGold exchange traded fund (ETF) from its current take-up value of just more than R240-million to R1-billion by the end of 2005, Absa Corporate and Merchant Bank’s (ACMB) Dr Vladimir Nedeljkovic told I-Net Bridge in an interview.
Nedeljkovic said it is difficult to know the growth potential of the gold EFT, as the bank is charting new territory in the local market.
ACMB launched the NewGold EFT in association with the World Gold Council (WGC).
The NewGold ETF was launched on November 2 2004 on the JSE Securities Exchange (JSE) and investors of the product had gained an equivalent exposure of 96 329 troy ounces or 2,73 tons of gold by the end of February 2005.
“We are happy with the subscription that we have got. It is almost 100 000 oz, which is the annual world-wide sales of krugerrands,” Nedeljkovic said.
At the time of the NewGold EFT, Absa said it is a feasible target to increase investor interest in the gold vehicle to 500 000 oz by the end of 2005.
The NewGold debenture closed at R27,07 a unit on Wednesday, and at 10am was bid at R26,95 and offered at R27,10 a unit.
World number two gold-miner Anglo Gold Ashanti is a member of the WGC.
“We are relatively pleased by the performance of NewGold. As the market gets educated, the take-up should increase. For the first time, South African investors are able to benefit from a direct investment in gold,” said AngloGold Ashanti marketing manager Rian Raghavjee.
AngloGold Ashanti sees the NewGold debenture as being similar to a savings account, he added.
The world’s first gold EFT was launched in Australia in March 2003, followed by London in December 2003 — then the JSE and the StreetTRACKS Gold Trust was launched in November 2004.
The Australian gold EFT currently stands at 242 149 oz or 7,53 tons, and StreetTRACKS Gold Trust at 5,274-million oz or 164,05 tons.
The London EFT currently stands at 1,530-million oz or 47,60 tons of gold.
The growth path of the South African gold EFT is likely to develop somewhere between that of the Australian market and the London market, Nedeljkovic said.
In Australia, interest in the gold EFT developed slowly, while the London EFT made an explosive start, as did the United States EFTs.
The US growth was driven by the specific need among US investors for a hedge against the weak dollar, Nedeljkovic added.
More gold EFTs are on the cards and the WGC is looking at all number of major stock exchanges for a further listing.
Hong Kong could be the next exchange where a gold EFT is listed, a source told I-Net Bridge.
NewGold is the fifth ETF to be listed on the JSE after the NewRand, Satrix 40, Satrix FIN and Satrix Indi ETFs.
NewGold provides investors with access to the rand gold price, and each NewGold debenture equals one-hundredth of a troy ounce of gold.
Case for gold EFT
The case for a gold EFT is a good one, as the price of gold is driven by supply and demand for the metal and by the fact that gold behaves like a currency as well, Nedeljkovic said.
In addition, investors should hold gold in order to achieve maximum diversification of risk and depending on their risk appetite. South African investors should have between 5% and 30% of gold in their portfolio, he added.
Thus far, about 80% of the value of the NewGold debentures has been taken up by institutional investors and the remaining 20% by retail investors.
Nedeljkovic said that NewGold debentures are much less volatile than gold stocks.
“Gold as a commodity, compared with the gold shares, is much less volatile. This is bad if you are doing volatility trades, but on a buy-and-hold basis it is good,” Nedeljkovic added.
However, the NewGold debentures are really a buy-and-hold vehicle, and performance over the long term — five to six years — is better than the broad market, Nedeljkovic said.
For those who want greater gearing to the gold price, there are listed call warrants available on the NewGold debenture as well as over-the-counter options, he added.
One of the most important aspects of the NewGold debenture is the diversification benefit it offers, he stated.
The opportunity that Absa sees is that gold, outside krugerrands, hasn’t been part of the investment asset mix in South Africa, and the NewGold debenture is offering a new asset class to investors.
Gold also doesn’t correlate with the movement of other assets and this, too, provides a diversification for investors, Nedeljkovic said.
“If there is a market disturbance, most other market assets become more correlated than they used to be. Gold is not the same,” he said.
Gold is really “portfolio insurance”, he concluded. — I-Net Bridge