It may just be the scariest job in politics, but someone is going to have to say yes when President Thabo Mbeki asks him or her to take over Jacob Zuma’s office at the Union Buildings.
Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota and Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, both former leaders of the United Democratic Front, are among the leading candidates for the most dangerous job in politics.
Whoever gets it will be exposed to merciless scrutiny from supporters of Zuma who believe he is the victim of a political assassination and, more generally, from an ANC that will see its unity sorely tested in the run-up to its congress in 2007.
Lekota is currently the odds-on favourite. The defence minister is national chairman of the ANC and he is broadly popular within the movement. He was the architect of the New National Party’s extraordinary merger with the ANC, he has international experience and he is seen by many as a conciliator who is able to bridge ethnic and ideological divides. His background in the Mass Democratic Movement (as opposed to the exiled ANC), say his backers, means he understands how to work with Cosatu and its leadership.
Zuma’s own camp has been floating the idea that Minister of Minerals and Energy Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka might be in line for the job. But she is married to Zuma’s nemesis: former head of the National Prosecuting Authority Bulelani Ngucka. If she were to replace the man her husband helped bring down she would immediately be exposed to political attacks which would not only threaten her prospects in the party, but potentially hamper reconciliation moves.
Trevor Manuel, who is a short head behind Lekota in the speculation stakes, is being punted by some as the reunification candidate. He is hardly the darling of the left, but he is enormously popular, and he has made it clear that he is not aiming for the top job. As a result he may be less threatening to those who see themselves as presidential candidates.
Charles Nqakula, Minister of Safety and Security, has been assigned as leader of government business in Parliament, a job Zuma previously held. This does not mean he will necessarily become Deputy President.
The two other leading candidates within Cabinet are Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who is personally close to Mbeki, and Minister of Social Development Zola Skweyiya.
Dlamini-Zuma was once seen as Mbeki’s preferred successor, but many within the ANC argue that her formidable political skills are not enough to offset her lack of mass popularity. Her appointment, they suggest, would be a holding move.
From outside Cabinet the name most often mentioned is that ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe. Seen as a possible future president Motlanthe, like Lekota, could be an effective bridge to the alliance and others who see themselves as opponents. With Mbeki’s efforts to maintain hegemony in the party, Gauteng premier Mbhazima Shilowa is a long-shot candidate, for similar reasons.
If someone who is not a minister were to take over, there would be no immediate need for a Cabinet reshuffle, and Mbeki may want to limit disruption as he pushes his restructuring plans, and programme of action.