Following a day of deadly riots in the streets of Khartoum sparked by the death in a helicopter crash of former rebel leader John Garang, Sudan on Tuesday was plunged back into uncertainty.
Sudan’s hard-earned but fragile peace was thrown into doubt with the death of the bold, charismatic Garang, who carried the hopes of millions of southern Sudanese grown tired of war and eager to taste the fruits of peace.
To allay the fears of many that Garang’s death might derail Sudan’s peace process, top officials in Garang’s rebel movement acted quickly on Monday to name his successor — Salva Kiir Mayardit, Garang’s deputy in the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement, or SPLM, the rebel groups political arm.
Salva Kiir promptly held a press conference in Nairobi to reassure Sudanese that the SPLM and its army will honour the peace deal that Garang worked so hard for.
”We in the SPLM leadership will continue the vision and the objectives of the movement that [Garang] articulated and hoped to implement,” he said.
The peace deal sealed in January gives southern Sudan nearly half the country’s oil revenue and more political representation. It also gives the south the right to secede from the north after a six-year interim period.
It is this last piece of the deal that worries many in the North, including Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir. It is where many analysts see the visions of Garang and Salva Kiir diverge.
Garang supported a unified Sudan, but Salva Kiir does not. It was Salva Kiir in the early years of the peace talks in Kenya who pushed for a referendum that allowed southern Sudanese themselves to decide whether they wanted to break away from the mostly Muslim, Arab north.
”That was his main bone of contention during the talks, that the people should be allowed to decide for themselves whether to secede from the north. He wanted to give that power to the people,” said Kenyan General Lazaro Sumbeiywo, chief mediator for the peace talks.
Also, Garang was an autocratic leader, which some analysts say was an asset for a rebel movement prone to splits along ethnic lines. By contrast, Salva Kiir’s style is more collegial, which could be a liability in the often-fractious nature of the SPLM.
The United States sent two senior envoys to Sudan to talk with officials in Khartoum in a bid to help smooth the transition from Garang to Salva Kiir.
Also, delegations from across this region of Africa are expected in southern Sudanese city of Juba, where Garang is to be buried on Saturday.
Garang helped forge a solid foundation for peace, unlikely to be undone by his death, the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) said on Tuesday.
”The peace agreement will survive because he has left a road map,” SPLM representative Marial Benjamin told an Institute for Security Studies (ISS) seminar in Pretoria.
While problems were inevitable, Sudan’s peace process was securely anchored, he said.
”There is a determination to see [the comprehensive peace agreement] is implemented to the spirit and the letter.”
One of Garang’s major achievements, Benjamin said on Tuesday, had been to persuade all Sudanese of the relevance of a peace deal signed in January.
But the ISS’ acting director in Nairobi, Mohamed Guyo, said the vacuum left by Garang’s death has raised fears about the strength of the partnership between the SPLM and the government — and the peace deal.
”He was the voice of moderation in the SPLM and in southern Sudan.”
His passing might also impact on ongoing negotiations between the current government and the National Democratic Alliance — a grouping of Sudanese opposition parties seeking representation in the unity government.
Unity talks between political forces of southern Sudan, in which Garang played a pivotal role, also hung in the balance, Benjamin said.
Furthermore, his role in seeking solutions to the conflict in Darfur, was likely to be missed.
Benjamin said concerns have emerged that Garang’s death would give rise to a power struggle within the SPLM. Expectations arising from his commitment to rebuilding the war-torn south have also been shattered.
Regional stability looked uncertain given Garang’s influence in forging closer ties between the Sudan and countries like Eritrea and Uganda.
”We don’t know how the new leadership will play the game of regional diplomacy.”
Benjamin said Garang had left the SPLM with very strong structures, and expressed confidence in his Salva Kiir Mayardit.
”There are very capable people, who have been in the movement from the beginning, running things now.
”The things he [Garang] has already done… has guaranteed a road map I am sure will proceed.” – Sapa – Sapa-DPA