Speculating publicly about the permutations of a back-line game plan ahead of a Test against the All Blacks is something we haven’t seen very often. But then again, we haven’t seen a Springbok side like the present one in eight years, either.
Saturday’s Test at Carisbrook is a decider in more ways than one. Firstly, we’ll see whether the Boks can rewrite history by beating the All Blacks at the House of Pain; secondly, whether they will retain the Tri-Nations crown.
Achieving any one of these goals is literally impossible.
South Africa have never won at Carisbrook — it is almost as daunting a venue for teams visiting New Zealand as Ellis Park is to sides playing in South Africa.
Add to this the fact that the All Blacks are very likely the finest side on the planet, and the chances of a victory on Saturday look very slim indeed. So slim, in fact, that Bok supporters entertaining the thought of victory should be shackled, shaved and lashed in the town square. That’s the way it’s always been and always will be.
How is it then that so many formerly sane people are talking excitedly about winning in Dunedin?
Perhaps it’s the fact that the Springboks under Jake White have regained the belief that they should be the benchmark by which rugby teams are measured. That was, not so long ago, the way it was and — many thought — the way it always would be.
Perhaps it has to something to do with the fact that brains have again become an integral part of the Bok coaching structure — replacing the “break them to make them” mentality that any South African above 30 experienced in one way or another while growing up.
Or maybe it has, in the past couple of months, dawned on South Africans that the only way forward is by embracing change. Some took to White’s ideas with a little less enthusiasm than others, but when the only yardstick is results, well, then there’s very little room for argument, isn’t there?
South African rugby’s achievements this season will not only mark the point when the Boks started believing in themselves and their abilities again, but should also remind us how important unity is to national sports on any level.
Without ordinary people driving and believing in them, teams are just groups of athletes — some good, some great. But when there’s the genuine desire to see a side transforming into a world-beating unit, that’s when good things start happening. Exactly like they have since that first Test against France.
The All Blacks will be without their first-choice flyhalf on Saturday, but have an able replacement in Leon MacDonald. The Kiwis will certainly miss Dan Carter, but a player of MacDonald’s experience is not to be underestimated.
The tussle up front will be quite something. The front rows are reasonably evenly matched, with the All Blacks possibly having a slight advantage. The second row should be the Springboks’ trump card again as Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield are currently without peer.
The loss of Breyton Paulse has, perhaps fortuitously, seen the recall of De Wet Barry to inside centre. Barry has taken a well-deserved rest and — if he is at his best on Saturday — could very well ignite the Springboks on attack.
Jacque Fourie retains his position and will play on Barry’s outside, while Jean de Villiers will start the match on the wing. Of course, a back-line shuffle at some stage of the Test should be expected — something at which White has more than hinted. I mentioned earlier in the week that the squad system’s advantages have started becoming increasingly obvious — and the luxury of having three world-class centres in a single back line is very exciting indeed.
Bryan Habana on the left wing and veteran Percy Montgomery round off the Springboks’ attacking force quite nicely.
The rush defence will again be tested to its limits on Saturday and the apparent defensive frailty of the flyhalf channel — especially when filled by Andre Pretorius — will certainly have been worked on, as the All Blacks will target it frequently and aggressively.
The loose trios are so evenly matched that any kind of speculation is worthless, but Richie McCaw is the obvious target for South Africa as much as Schalk Burger is for New Zealand. Whichever side manages to retain possession and keep building will, logically, have the greatest advantage. Whether that side will win is another question, but points are historically easier to come by with ball in hand.
Winning on Saturday will not be easy. It probably won’t even happen.
Of greatest importance is acknowledging the fact that the Springboks are back — bigger, better, faster and prouder than they’ve been in a very long while.
And that is a very good thing indeed.