Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo has formally pitched his country’s candidacy for a permanent seat on a reformed United Nations Security Council.
Citing the size of his country’s population and status as the world’s fifth-largest source of oil, he recounted his country’s role in peacekeeping conflicts in Africa.
In the normal course of things, his presentations would have been perfectly timed to catch an expected wave of review to wash over the world body.
As many of Nigeria’s West African partners have noted, there is a strong case for Nigeria becoming a permanent representative of the UN powerhouse — its rather truncated post-colonial experience with democracy notwithstanding.
But in reality, Obasanjo’s hopes along with those of other African leaders, look likely to be dashed.
The UN reform ship has sailed.
Any formula with an expectation of success would have to gain a two-thirds majority of the 191 UN General Assembly members in less than a month when about 170 world leaders will gather in New York.
They will be preoccupied with development issues — reviewing progress on the Millennium Development Goals five years after their adoption.
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has urged members to ensure reform is a priority issue, but for this to succeed it would take an unprecedented show of multi-tasking by the international community.
Certainly, the other aspirant permanent members of the Security Council — India, Brazil, Japan and Germany — don’t think it likely.
They’re upset that Africa did not name two candidates to join their so-called Group of Four (G4).
The continent further eroded chances of a formula acceptable to the wider international community by insisting on having its permanent members — whoever they might be — empowered to wield the veto just like the current holders of those eternal seats: Britain, France, China, Russia and the United States.
A third hurdle placed by Africa was the continent’s insistence of having five non-permanent seats — one for each of its regions.
Much of the African motivation for these demands was designed to avoid conflict in the 53-nation African Union.
But given the verbal spat between Egypt and Nigeria and Algeria’s decision to side with the grouping seeking an enlarged Security Council without any additional permanent members, this has been in vain.
African Union Commission chairperson Alpha Konare will go to New York with a position designed to fudge African differences and emphasise the moral and practical arguments for the need of the UN to reflect modern geopolitical realities.
His chances of success are slim, because blame for a block on reform cannot be laid wholly at Africa’s door.
In recent weeks, China and the United States have formed a strange alliance to stop the radical changes being demanded by the G4 and Africa.
Their exact goals are different, but the short-term objective of riding the current reform wave makes them allies.
China’s ambassador to the UN Wang Guangya says he already has an agreement with new US ambassador John Bolton.
China won’t have Japan as a permanent member. It wants reform to benefit Africa as its increasing source of oil and votes in the General Assembly and the UN Human Rights Commission.
The US endorses Japan’s claim and wants one more seat for a developing country. The 26-member council proposed by Africa is a complete non-starter in Washington.
There have been short-term benefits for Africa from the campaign. Japan now spends 40% of its overseas development aid on Africa, compared with 25% last year. This aid to Africa now amounts to $415-million a year, with a promise that it will double by 2007.