Old habits die hard, especially in Egypt. When President Hosni Mubarak launched his election campaign, the party faithfully declared their support in traditional fashion. ”With our souls, with our blood, we will sacrifice for you,” they chanted, but the president was not pleased and asked them to stop.
Those are the words that Arab crowds have parroted for decades, pledging eternal loyalty to Saddam Hussein and Yasser Arafat among others, but in the new world of Egyptian politics they are seriously off-message.
On Wednesday, after 24 years in power, the veteran Egyptian leader will face the first competitive election of his presidency, against nine challengers. Drawing a discreet veil over the past, posters hail him as ”a crossing to the future”. The president has been repackaged, rejuvenated and remarketed: he is New Mubarak.
Though 77 years old, he looks remarkably youthful in all the pictures — testimony, perhaps, to the effectiveness of Grecian 2000, stage makeup, judicious lighting and Adobe Photoshop.
His speeches have a softer tone, he has taken off his tie to acquire a more relaxed look, he sips tea with peasants and is seen less often with his sunglasses (”dictator glasses”, as the spin doctors call them).
In tune with the times, he has a website in Arabic and English (mubarak2005.com) where anyone can apparently send messages direct to the president.
The creation of New Mubarak is largely the work of the president’s son, Gamal — a regular observer at party conferences in Britain — and Muhammad Kamal, the campaign’s media coordinator. Kamal has a PhD in American politics and, judging by his smooth performances, has spent hours practising the techniques of White House spokesperson.
The readily digestible New Mubarak package comes with promises of economic progress and political reform which — for the president’s opponents — raise the question of why he did so little about them during his first four terms.
Poverty
But despite mass poverty and unemployment, endemic corruption, a permanent state of emergency and an appalling human rights record, nobody expects Mubarak to lose the election. The only uncertainty is how convincingly he will win.
Among his nine opponents, the president’s main challengers are Noaman Goma’a, leader of the liberal Wafd party, which has just five seats in Parliament compared with the 404 held by Mubarak’s National Democratic party (NDP), and the charismatic Ayman Nour, who broke away from the Wafd to form his own party, al-Ghad (”Tomorrow”).
Under the electoral rules, the banned but partially tolerated Muslim Brotherhood, which is easily the most significant political force in Egypt after the NDP, is prevented from fielding a candidate.
Would-be presidents are allocated half a million Egyptian pounds ($91 000) of government money towards their campaign costs — which may help to explain why so many are standing.
By far the most colourful is Ahmed al-Sabahi, a 91-year-old fortune teller who has been in politics since 1933 and heads the religious Umma party. Sabahi wears an old-fashioned fez and wants to make such headwear compulsory for all Egyptians. If he wins the election, he says, he will hand back the presidency to Mubarak, ”who is wiser than all of us”.
After decades of political sterility, the election has stimulated debate — not least because of calls from the United States president, George Bush, that Egypt should set a democratic example for the rest of the Middle East. Despite continuing censorship and the use of riot police to quell demonstrations, criticism of the government is probably more open now than in any other Arab country.
Harassment
Just four months ago Nour and other prospective candidates faced constant harassment from the authorities. The only place Nour could hold meetings in Cairo was a private building in his own constituency.
Last Saturday night, with official blessing, he held a grand rally in the capital’s biggest square, complete with stage, lights, banners, portable generators and giant projection screens.
Even so, it is a one-sided election, with nine political dwarves pitted against one super-candidate.
Government newspapers have given space to all contenders, though significantly more to Mubarak.
Meanwhile, there are serious doubts about the election itself. In a report last week, the Washington-based Human Rights Watch concluded that a free and fair contest is virtually impossible. The NDP’s dominance in all branches of government, ”its vast patronage network, state control of electronic and major print media, more than five decades of stultifying restrictions on independent parties and political activity, and an absurdly short campaign window of three weeks make it extremely unlikely that the election on September 7 will reflect the free choice of the electorate”, the report said.
Many Egyptians, assuming that Mubarak will not dare to seek a sixth term in office, see this week’s poll as a dress rehearsal for the first ”real” presidential election in 2011, or earlier if the president dies in the meantime.
The mood, at least in Cairo, is of deep cynicism. In a straw poll of half a dozen residents last week, most said they had no intention of voting. ”What’s the point? Mubarak is going to win anyway,” one said.
Nour, who was imprisoned earlier this year, is facing trial on forgery charges which are generally thought to have been trumped up by the government. His trial is due to resume later this month.
”If Ayman Nour wins he will go to jail on September 26,” said Hisham Kassem, editor of al-Masri al-Youm newspaper and a declared Nour supporter.
The real fear in the Mubarak camp is not defeat but a low turnout among the estimated 32-million voters, which would fail to give the president a convincing mandate. Historically, there are tried and trusted ways of ensuring this will not happen. Stuffing ballot boxes is one. Bussing government employees (there are seven million of them) to the polling stations is another, as is the practice of turning suspected opposition supporters away.
Calls for international monitoring have been rejected on grounds of national sovereignty. The government argues that supervision by Egyptian judges, plus the presence of international media, will be enough to ensure transparency.
The judges, who were highly critical of a referendum last May which they said was marred by abuses and irregularities, had been threatening a boycott but have now agreed to go ahead with their supervision, while calling for more steps to ensure a fair vote and threatening to expose any foul play.
So far, the government has largely ignored their demands and has been manoeuvring to shift the more independent-minded judges away from main polling stations.
Many of the judges remain defiant, however, and their tussle with the government could turn out to be the most important contest on polling day. – Guardian Unlimited Â