The inconclusive result of Germany’s election has deprived British Prime Minister Tony Blair of a much-sought ally in a crusade to reform Europe’s lacklustre economy, political analysts said on Monday.
Officially, Downing Street declined to comment on the outcome of Sunday’s German vote that left Gerhard Schröder, who heads a centre-left government, and conservative challenger Angela Merkel both claiming victory.
”It is wait and see time,” Blair’s official spokesperson told reporters on Monday.
Privately, the outcome will be seen by Blair — who had been anticipating a Merkel win — as a setback, midway through Britain’s six-month turn at the rotating European Union presidency, analysts said.
”It must be something of a disappointment for Tony Blair,” said political scientist Wyn Grant of Warwick University. ”If [Merkel’s] Christian Democrats had been returned, there would have been opportunities to develop a relationship in Washington and to move forward a more liberal agenda within the EU.”
”I think Downing Street was hoping for a clear victory [by Merkel] for three reasons,” agreed Mark Leonard, of the Centre for European Reform think tank in London. ”First of all, for personal reasons, because relations with Gerhard Schröder had reached an all-time low.
”Secondly, for political reasons, because it [Downing Street] wants allies for economic reform in Europe — and a clear, strong Merkel mandate would have completely changed the political dynamics.
”And thirdly, in a way, they just wanted to see a government with a mandate. When Germany is so internally preoccupied with its problems, it’s not really playing a constructive role … It’s tempted to block things rather than act.”
Merkel was seen in London as a serious player in the run-up to the election, with Blair arranging to see her when he passed through Berlin last June — just before dining with Schröder.
Her desire to shake up the German economy, Europe’s biggest, dovetailed with Blair’s quest to make the 25-nation bloc more competitive in the face of globalisation and the rising power of China and India.
She would have been a useful ally at the October 27 to 28 informal EU summit that Blair will host at Hampton Court Palace, outside London, on the future of Europe.
Merkel was also sympathetic to Blair’s fight to retain the budget rebate, projected at â,¬7,1-billion a year between 2007 and 2013, that Britain gets from Brussels for the relatively little it reaps from EU farm subsidies.
If there was any area where Blair and Merkel clashed, it would have been Turkey — he vigorously supports Ankara’s bid to join the EU; she doesn’t.
By comparison, relations between Blair and Schröder were cordial until the United States and British invasion of Iraq in March 2003, which the chancellor, in tandem with French President Jacques Chirac, opposed.
”If Merkel had been chancellor with a clear majority … the balance within Europe would have changed quite significantly, but that is not going to happen in the immediate future anyway,” Grant said.
”One major country in the EU which doesn’t have a very authoritative government would be a constraint to whoever is the [EU] president,” he added. ”It is a bigger disappointment for Blair.” — Sapa-AFP