South Africa’s consumer price index excluding mortgage rate changes (CPIX) for metro and other areas, which is used by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) for its inflation target, rose by 4,8% year-on-year in August after increasing by 4,2% in July, Statistics South Africa said on Wednesday.
August CPIX was expected to rise to 4,8% year-on-year from July’s 4,2%, according to a survey of economists conducted by I-Net Bridge.
Economists’ forecasts for CPIX ranged from 4,6% to 5%.
Commented George Glynos, market analyst at Econometrix Treasury Management: “It is marginally softer than expected, but I don’t think it changes the immediate interest-rate outlook — I still expect an unchanged decision in October and maybe for the first six months of next year.
“We maintain our view that it is still too early to be calling rate hikes. Petrol prices were the main driver, and on that count we expect a plateau over the next few months, as high petrol-price base factors come into play.”
Annabel Bishop, economist at Investec, said: “CPIX inflation rate rose in August as expected, partly on the back of statistical base effects and partly due to the petrol-price hike in that month. We expect that CPIX inflation will subside in Q4.05 and that the inflation target will be consistently achieved in both 2005 and 2006.
“We still expect that the [SARB’s] monetary policy committee will leave interest rates unchanged in Q4.05, although the risk of a 50 basis-point December 2005 interest rate hike is rising as the oil price remains stubbornly high.”
Colen Garrow, economist at Brait, commented: “The rising CPIX signals that an interest-rate hike is likely at some stage, if it carries on at the current pace. My model is saying that CPIX could exceed the upper end of the SARB’s target range [6%] late in the first quarter of 2006 if the oil price continues to rise, so the question now is: When does the SARB act?
“Next week, we are likely to see a further petrol-price hike [of about 10 cents per litre], which will also impact negatively on CPIX for October.
“The SARB is likely to act pre-emptively before the second-round effects [producers hiking prices] are influenced significantly — we are already seeing so-called third-round effects of the petrol-price rise, with employees starting to demand higher wage increases to compensate for the higher petrol price.
“For now, I am seeing interest rates 1% higher through 2006, but no more of a hike than this.”
Nico Kelder, economist at the Efficient Group, said: “The numbers [CPIX and CPI] are slightly higher than our expectations, but not significantly. It shows that the inflation trend is firmly on an upward path and the inflation target for early next year is under threat.”
“The figure is below my expectations,” said Mike Schussler, economist at T-Sec, “and I think it is going to be neutral for the bond market and certainly for the rand and equities.
“Everybody will be waiting to see what October CPIX will come in at. But, once again, CPIX came in below expectations in August and that is the main point.” — I-Net Bridge