The political disabling of Jacob Zuma has again thrown open the presidential succession race — and a powerful group of African National Congress members close to President Thabo Mbeki are said to be throwing their support behind Mbhazima Shilowa, Premier of Gauteng, as their favoured candidate.
Zuma’s announcement this week that he has voluntarily suspended himself from the party’s national working committee, national executive committee and deployment committee pending the outcome of the rape case has intensified the leadership battle in the party, a contest party leaders insist has not yet played itself out.
The Mail & Guardian understands that a ”small but influential” group representing the business wing of the ANC is planning Shilowa’s ascent to the party’s top position at its 2007 national conference.
The M&G understands this group met at mid-year to ”strategise” a Shilowa move into the deputy presidency after Jacob Zuma’s dismissal. The individuals, ”handpicked” to attend, are believed to remain active in Shilowa’s cause.
But within the larger ANC he is regarded as a political junior.
Shilowa’s spokesperson in the ANC, Hope Papo, was non-committal when approached for comment this week. ”The issue of succession is not a priority in the province,” Papo said.
The biggest question, however, is whether Zuma’s supporters will back a new candidate and whether Mbeki will insist on making a bid for the party leadership himself or choosing a successor.
It is understood that ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe remains the compromise candidate of the ANC left and the party’s trade union allies — despite recent allegations that he was behind e-mail messages dismissed by Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils as fraudulent.
These purportedly implicate senior ANC leaders, including Saki Macozoma, Frank Chikane and Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, in a smear campaign against Motlanthe, apparently to destroy any presidential ambitions he might harbour.
Motlanthe told the M&G that he was not at all worried by the allegations and was confident they would not tarnish his image. ANC members were not gullible and would not be influenced by the allegations against him, he said.
”Kgalema remains a compromise candidate,” said an ANC national executive committee member.
Until recently, Motlanthe was acceptable to both the Zuma and the Mbeki camps, as he was seen as above the fray. However, he was dragged into hostilities when Zuma apparently told his close aides that they should back the secretary general if he (Zuma) became ineligible.
Motlanthe further identified himself with the Zuma camp by taking a soft line when T-shirts bearing ÂÂMbeki’s image were burnt in Durban. He said members were expressing their feelings because the organisation was in pain.
More recently, however, he has reverted to the ANC leadership’s tough stance against Zuma. Motlanthe lacks government experience, but ANC leaders say that would not count against him.
Zuma said his decision to recuse himself from the party’s senior leadership structures would not affect his position as ANC deputy president. However, a statement by the extended national working committee (NWC) meeting on Tuesday evening following Zuma’s announcement, suggested the party’s leadership had essentially extended Zuma’s voluntary suspension to include the ANC deputy presidency.
”The basis on which Cde Jacob Zuma participates in these ANC structures is as deputy president of the ANC. It is in his capacity as Deputy President of the ANC, therefore, that he has decided to voluntarily suspend his participation in these leading structures,” said the NWC statement.
It added that after consulting Zuma, the NWC ”understands this decision to mean that he would not act nor pronounce in the capacity of deputy president of the ANC for the duration of this trial”.
It has been speculated that the NWC intervened in response to Zuma’s plans — subsequently dropped — to address a rally in Limpopo on Wednesday.
The NWC statement suggested the party’s priority would be to support the rape complainant.
”The ANC views the charge of rape in an extremely serious light, as it goes to the heart of the kind of society that we have struggled for many decades to build. The ANC reiterates its resolute determination to end gender-based violence in all its forms and manifestations. The NWC was particularly sensitive to the need to safeguard the rights and dignity of the alleged victim.”
A national executive committee member told the M&G that Zuma’s downfall meant the contest for the presidency would intensify. The member said that while Shilowa was the preferred candidate of ”some elements within the ANC”, deputy president Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka’s appointment in May this year could have softened support for him because she was equally popular ”in business circles”.
The national executive committee member said it was ”too early” to say the succession battle would be a showdown between Shilowa and Motlanthe. ”At this stage, support for candidates is changing by the day.”
A leading candidate as the ANC tries to assert itself as most progressive on gender matters is Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. She is said to have been offered the deputy presidency by Mbeki after Zuma was fired, but is believed to have turned down the post in solidarity with her former husband. Dlamini-Zuma is a senior member of the ANC and of Mbeki’s Cabinet and is internationally recognised, but questions have been raised about whether she has enough popular support among ANC members to ward off any possible contest.
The outsider is ANC and ÂÂgovernment strategist Joel Netshitenzhe. The current head of the government policy coordinating unit, Netshitenzhe is the brains behind ANC policy discussions and has been compared to Mbeki, who played a similar role under long-time ANC president Oliver Tambo.
But those close to Netshitenzhe say he does not consider himself as a candidate now but could still be groomed for the future. But he is also said to have alienated himself from Zuma backers with his unwavering support for Mbeki during the current crisis.