South Africa’s producer price index (PPI) rose by 4,5% year-on-year in November from a 4,2% increase in October, Statistics South Africa said on Thursday.
The month-on-month change was a 0,5% increase in November after a 0,1% increase in October.
The PPI was expected to have eased to 4,1% year-on-year, according to an I-Net Bridge survey of economists, with the range from 3,7% to 4,3%.
The locally produced inflation rose to 4% year-on-year in November from 3,5%, while imported inflation eased to a 5,7% year-on-year increase from 5,8% in October and a 31-month peak of 6,8% in September.
Commented Mike Schussler, economist at T-Sec: “It’s a bit of a shock — I would guess it’s a delayed reaction from oil prices. I think that yesterday’s [Wednesday’s] CPIX would carry more weight in the market, but this could limit downward movement in bond yields.”
Annabel Bishop, of Investec’s economics division, said: “PPI inflation came out well above expectations (due partly to unexpected food price pressure on the month). We believe PPI inflation will rise further in December on the back of base effects, and that this statistical distortion will continue over Q1.06 as PPI inflation moves to 6% year-on-year.
“However, we forecast that it will be back below the midpoint of the inflation target range by the end of 2006.
“We still believe interest rates will remain unchanged over 2006. The risk to this forecast is a 50 basis-point cut mid-2006.”
Brait economist Colen Garrow said: “It is a bit higher than expected and adds fuel to the argument for stable interest rates going forward. There had been a very small risk of a rate cut previous to this, but now there should be no chance.
“The data is telling us there is some inflationary pressure to monitor on the production side that will feed through into the consumer basket — the lead time is about three months.
“So this will probably see the SARB [South African Reserve Bank] sitting tight at its February 1 and 2 meeting. One point the data shows is that imported inflation is higher than local inflation, which should be of some comfort to local producers who have been struggling to compete against imports.”
Magan Mistry, Nedcor economist, commented: “The PPI numbers show that inflation remains benign. With inflation benign there is unlikely to be an interest0rate cut, as I think the South African Reserve Bank would not want to cause a spike in spending. We are forecasting flat interest rates in 2006.” — I-Net Bridge