The world’s major powers and the United Nations must move urgently to prevent a new border war between arch-rival Horn of Africa neighbours Ethiopia and Eritrea that could further destabilise the volatile region, a leading international policy institute warned on Thursday.
With tensions soaring amid increasingly belligerent statements, troop movements on both sides and Eritrean restrictions on UN peacekeepers monitoring the frontier, immediate action is needed to calm the situation, the Crisis Group (CG) said.
”The stakes could hardly be higher,” said CG president and former Australian foreign minister Gareth Evans. ”Neither side appears eager for a second war, but the situation is very fragile and to dismiss current tensions as mere sabre-rattling would be a serious mistake.”
”Resumption [of war] would destabilise the entire Horn, fuelling flows of weapons to armed groups throughout the region, rekindling a proxy war in Somalia and undermining the fragile peace process in southern and eastern Sudan,” he said.
The Brussels-based group called on the UN Security Council, the United States, the European Union, the African Union and individual guarantors of a 2000 peace deal that ended Ethiopia and Eritrea’s bloody two-year war to re-engage with both sides to avert what it said would be a ”disastrous” new conflict.
These parties must ”move urgently” to adopt a ”3-Ds” strategy — concurrent de-escalation, demarcation and dialogue — the CG said in a report released a day after Addis Ababa and Asmara both claimed victory in a series of rulings from a commission assessing damage claims from the war.
Key to a final resolution is to get Ethiopia to accept a binding 2002 border delineation it has thus far rejected, the group said, stressing, however, that other matters need to be addressed simultaneously if a repeat of the 1998-2000 conflict that claimed about 80 000 lives is to be avoided.
It said the so-called ”Algiers Group” of witnesses to the 2000 peace accord — the UN, US, EU and AU — should demand immediate implementation of the deal, including the new border demarcation, and appoint a senior US diplomat as a special envoy to mediate.
At the same time, the UN Security Council should use an upcoming January review of Ethiopian and Eritrean compliance with demands to withdraw troops from the border to give the two countries 30 days to comply or face automatic and specific mandatory sanctions, including an arms embargo, the CG said.
The council must also press Eritrea further to remove restrictions it has imposed on the UN peacekeeping mission, urge it to address issues of port access for landlocked Ethiopia and support for Ethiopian rebel groups, it said.
In addition, the council must make clear to Ethiopia that it will face sanctions unless it accepts the border delineation that it now insists must be revised, said the CG, which this year shortened its name by dropping the first word ”International”.
Eritrea has warned repeatedly that new conflict is looming because Ethiopia has rejected the demarcation and has angrily accused world powers of ignoring Addis Ababa’s non-compliance.
In recent months, Asmara has demonstrated that displeasure by ramping up restrictions on the UN mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea, which monitors the 1 000km frontier, culminating with its expulsion of US, Canadian, European and Russian peacekeepers last week.
On Monday, the Ethiopia-Eritrea Claims Commission ruled that Eritrea had violated international law when it attacked the flashpoint border town of Badme in 1998, sparking the war.
The commission said Eritrea is liable to pay compensation for damage caused in the attack but also ruled that Ethiopia should pay damages for the mistreatment of Eritrean civilians and property damage caused by its troops. — Sapa-AFP