South Africa’s municipal election on March 1 will be a test of whether the African National Congress (ANC) will be able to retain municipalities which ”turned” to it during two floor-crossing periods since the last national municipal election in December 2000.
Altogether the ANC was the winner of the floor-crossing periods. In 2000
it won, according to the Independent Electoral Commission, 170 municipalities, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) won 36 and the Democratic Alliance (DA) 18. These figures exclude district councils.
The ANC gained greater influence in 20 more municipalities in the first crossing and nine in the second. The DA was the largest victim of the decline in its power — although the IFP lost control of six municipalities.
The loss of power by the DA is complex. In the first round, the DA gained two municipalities, lost three to the ANC and lost a further four to a New National Party (NNP)/ANC combination. In the second round it lost nine municipalities to the ANC, a further three to the NNP, one to a combination of the ANC/NNP. In a further three cases, it lost three to the ANC but had been in a combined administration with it before the crossover.
The bleeding of the opposition will be a hard trend to reverse although these are areas where the ANC has never won an outright majority at the ballot box.
However, the ANC gained 107 councillors and lost 16 in the first floor-crossing in October 2002. In the second floor-crossing in September 2004 it gained 330 new councillors and lost just four — taking its overall tally of 6 049 or 68,4% of the country’s 8 840 councillors.
According to the Independent Electoral Commission, the ANC only gained under 60% support countrywide followed by the DA with 22% — with the IFP trailing with 9% — in 2000.
While municipal elections can articulate frustration by voters against the ruling party, the trend in South Africa tends to indicate that floor-crossing broadly represents the changes in electoral support on the ground. For example, before the ANC won both the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal legislatures in 2004, floor-crossings had almost toppled the IFP-led government in KwaZulu-Natal in 2003 and the NNP/ANC had already formed a joint government in the Western Cape in 2002.
If these patterns continue at local government level, the ANC are set to sweep both traditional opposition-strong areas — the Western Cape where the DA is strong and in KwaZulu-Natal where the IFP is strong.
The battle in KwaZulu-Natal will be even more sticky for the opposition with the emergence of the Inkatha splinter group, the National Democratic Convention led by Ziba Jiyane. Patricia de Lille’s Independent Democrats will also looking to make inroads in the Western Cape and this is likely to come largely from traditional opposition voters.
Notably in the first municipal floor crossing 2002, the DA was the biggest victim — with the NNP having withdrawn from the alliance formed in 2000 with the DA. It lost 417 councillors — 340 to the NNP, 51 to the ANC, 19 to independents and the remainder to six other groups. The DA gained only 17 seats from other parties.
According to the South African Local Government Research Centre led by Clive Keegan the municipalities which shifted to the ANC-NNP ambit in the first period included: Kouga Municipality in the Eastern Cape after one DA councillor defected to the NNP, giving the ANC-NNP alliance a majority of one on the 19-seat council and the Baviaans municipality in the Eastern Cape where two DA councillors went to the ANC, shifting power from the DA to the ANC.
Then in KwaZulu-Natal, three municipalities fell to the ANC — Kwa Sani municipality Endumeni and Ugu district council. The first changed from an IFP/ANC administration to an ANC administration while Ugu changed from an IFP to a joint IFP/ANC administration. At Endumeni the IFP/ANC/DA administration changed to the ANC.
Then in the Northern Cape, three DA councils — Renosterberg, Kareeberg and Karoo Hoogland fell. The first to an ANC/NNP administration while the other
became ANC administrations. This put all local governments in that province in the broad ANC/NNP ambit.
In the Western Cape, seven municipalities shifted from DA administrations to ANC administrations — including the only metropolitan area in the country which was not in ANC hands, Cape Town. At this point, 27 DA councillors crossed to the NNP and ANC in the 200 member council giving the NNP/ANC an outright majority. The others which ”turned” were Swellendam, Stellenbosch, Garden Route/KleinKaroo district council, Drakenstein, Overberg district council and South Cape district council.
However, at Witzenberg, Oudtshoorn, Saldanha Bay and Kannaland joint ANC/DA administrations became ANC while at Overstand, a DA administration became an NNP administration, according to Keegan. At Prince Albert, a DA administration became a joint ANC/NNP/DA administration. All in all, 13 municipalities in the Western Cape moved in a direction away from the DA into the ANC/NNP fold.
In 2000, according to the IEC, the DA won 50,6% of the vote with 1,2-million votes in the Western Cape. The ANC only won four municipalities outright in 2000 with 1,05-million votes or 40,2% of the vote.
The first floor crossing gave the ANC outright control of 11 municipalities with six more or less in its ambit — of a total of 25 municipalities in the Western Cape. By the end of the second floor-crossing period it had power in three more — a total of 20.
In the 2004 floor-crossing, 10 municipalities changed ”dominant party” status. They were Aberdeen Plain in the Eastern Cape — which switched from NNP to ANC; Golden Gate Highlands in the Free State — from DA to ANC; Mtshezi, Endondakusuka, and Ubuhlebezwe in KwaZulu-Natal which all changed from IFP to the ANC; Renosterberg in the Northern Cape which changed from NNP back to the DA — giving the DA one municipality in the province; Overstrand in the Western Cape were the NNP administration changed to ANC; Langeberg in the Western Cape which went from the DA to the ANC; Knysna which went from the DA to the ANC and Breede River from the NNP to the ANC.
It was in this floor-crossing period that the Independent Democrats — formed in 2003 by de Lille — benefited the most after the ANC. The big losers were the United Democratic Movement of General Bantu Holomisa and Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s IFP. Technically the NNP lost the most — 283 councillors but it had already announced that it would merge with the ANC.
Buthelezi’s party lost three local municipalities — Mtshezi, Ubuhlebezwe and Ndondakusuka. The IFP lost 26 of its councillors including 22 to the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal and gained eight — reducing its councillors to 976 countrywide.
Holomisa’s party lost 54 councillors and gained just one. His party already lost its only municipality in Mthata/Umtata — King Sabata Dalindyebo municipality — through by-elections by June 2004.
During the second crossing, the DA gained 66 seats but lost 46 — taking its national tally from 1 001 to 1 024 councillors. It effectively placed it in official opposition status — ahead of the IFP — at local government level as it was at national level — at least in terms of municipal councillors. The bulk of its gains this time were from the NNP. Of the NNP’s councillors, 203 joined the ANC, while 86 will remain in the party until March 1.
The Independent Democrats gained 39 councillors — including 12 (seven from
the NNP) in the Western Cape and 11 in the Northern Cape. As the party did not exist in 2000, all these seats were gained. – I-Net Bridge