The local elections are do-or-die for the Inkatha Freedom Party in KwaZulu-Natal, which has haemorrhaged 38 municipal councillors to the fledgling National Democratic Convention (Nadeco) in the past two months.
However, analysts say Nadeco lacks the political machinery and ideological direction to pose a serious electoral threat in the province at this stage.
“Nadeco has a woolly political programme and has not staked out any ideological ground,” said Kiru Naidoo, Durban Institute for Technology political analyst. “[It] has pulled in several seasoned politicians, but their bogey is that Nadeco is the home of those alienated from the IFP.”
Up to 42 municipal councillors have defected to the six-month-old Nadeco, which is contesting in five provinces; 38 are from the IFP and the remainder from the African National Congress.
Independent analyst Protas Madlala said that although this is a critical election for the IFP, which has lost 50% of its membership since 1994, it is too early to write the party’s obituary, because Nadeco’s emergence has “spurred the IFP into action”.
“The split [from the IFP] came too late in the cycle,” observed John Daniel, research director at the Human Sciences Research Council in Durban. “The IFP has been energised by its emergence.”
IFP officials insist the party will regain control of 14 municipalities that it has lost to the ANC, mainly through floor crossing. “Nadeco is umlilo wephepha [a paper fire],” said Velaphi Ndlovu, IFP deputy chairperson. “It is just a little cat which is not in the race,” said party spokesperson Musa Zondi. “We are only contesting the elections with the ANC.”
But Nadeco is the only opposition party to have grown in the build-up to the election. It is also hoping to cash in on IFP councils weakened by corruption and infighting.
One of its targets is Zululand District Municipality, of which the Abaqulusi council — recently dissolved by KwaZulu-Natal local government minister Mike Mabuyakhulu for alleged corruption — forms part. It also hopes to take the Newcastle council, split by IFP infighting.
Makhosazana Mdlalose, a national MP who defected from the IFP to Nadeco last September, said that in the past month 6 000 new members from Newcastle had signed up to Nadeco. Mdlalose is the daughter of former KwaZulu-Natal premier and IFP chairman Frank Mdlalose, who joined Nadeco earlier this month.
Ziba Jiyane, president of Nadeco, said the party had taken a strategic decision to field candidates beyond the KwaZulu-Natal borders to avoid becoming regionally focused.
It will contest all municipalities in Kwazulu-Natal; Johannesburg, Ekuruhuleni and Tshwane in Gauteng; Gert Sibande, Mkhone and Emalahleni in Mpumalanga; Buffalo City in the Eastern Cape; and Bethlehem, Setsoto and Dihlabeng in the Free State.
It is contesting more than twice the number of wards in Jo’burg (163) as in Durban (77) because of responsiveness during its nationwide membership drive at the end of last year.
Daniel said the ANC would maintain control in Durban because people “are generally happy with the way the city is being managed”. About a third of all KwaZulu-Natal voters are based in the Durban metro.
According to Ndlovu, the IFP is focusing its election drive on urban areas, including Durban, Pieter-maritzburg, the Hibiscus Coast and Ugu District Municipality, which it has lost to the ANC. Nearly 90% of the IFP’s support now comes from rural KwaZulu-Natal and it enjoys only 2% of the urban vote.
At the last count, Nadeco’s membership “exceeded 40 000”, said John Aulsbrooke, a KwaZulu-Natal MP who crossed the floor to the party from the IFP last year. However, Madlala warned that the array of leaders attracted from other parties would not necessarily translate into votes.