The African National Congress e-mail spy saga has widened the ugly developing rift between President Thabo Mbeki and the party’s secretary general, Kgalema Motlanthe.
The differences over the authenticity of the e-mails are seen as a microcosm of a new struggle between the two.
The ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) meeting at the weekend marked the intensification of the battle, with Motlanthe insisting- that the party should not rely on a government-conducted probe into the messages, which purportedly implicated senior ANC leaders in a conspiracy against him.
Although the Cabinet accepted the findings of an investigation by Inspector General of Intelligence Zolile Ngcakani, Motlanthe asserted ANC hegemony over that of a state-appointed Mbeki-approved body.
Ngcakani’s report on how the e-mails found their way into a National Intelligence Agency (NIA) surveillance project, Project Avani, and how it was acted on, was presented and discussed at the NEC meeting.
Mbeki has vociferously supported Ngcakani’s investigation, which unequivocally pins the blame on sacked NIA director general Billy Masetlha for ”fabricating” the e-mails, subjecting people to unlawful surveillance and illegal interception.
The e-mails purport to be communications between senior ANC leaders sympathetic to Mbeki in a plot to sideline political opponents, principally including ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma and Motlanthe.
At the NEC meeting, Motlanthe persuaded the party to agree to its own parallel inquiry, arguing that the inspector general’s probe was limited to government employees.
Those who supported him in the meeting also point out that what was eventually released to the public last week by the IG was not the full report but a summarised version.
The NEC, however, did a balancing act, reiterating the conclusion that none of the NEC members referred to in the alleged electronic correspondence was, in fact, implicated. ”You have to be on drugs to say the e-mails were not fabricated,” said an NEC member.
One senior member argued that this indicated there was no real evidence to support claims of a conspiracy against Zuma and Motlanthe. ”This shows signs of bankrupt people. The fabrication of the e-mails is, in fact, evidence of conspiracy by them, and that is what needs to be looked at.
”Those who reject the inspector general’s report are just desperate. This is the worst kind of politics,” he said.
But the divisions in the party’s top echelons were highlighted by the remark of another senior NEC member that the e-mails were being exploited by the Mbeki faction to advance its presidential agenda.
”The ANC people are not stupid. They can see that Mbeki wants to come back or impose his candidate.”
An Mbeki loyalist countered this. ”What is wrong with Mbeki choosing his own candidate? He has the right to do so. This is how he [Mbeki] was elected, after all. Former president Nelson Mandela wanted someone else, but the ANC said, ‘Thank you very much, this is our candidate’.”
Supporters of Zuma, who is fighting for political survival as he faces separate charges of rape and of fraud and corruption, have now thrown their weight behind Motlanthe. They include the youth formations the Young Communist League and the ANC Youth League, who have become increasingly hostile to Mbeki.
Zuma himself is said to have told his supporters to throw their weight behind Motlanthe if he (Zuma) becomes unavailable because he is convicted in one or other case against him. The ANC Youth League has publicly said Zuma should succeed Mbeki, arguing it was ANC tradition for a deputy president to be elevated to president.
However, Motlanthe put his political standing on the line by lending credence to the e-mails when they first surfaced, by asking the authorities to act on them. He is believed to have asked police National Commissioner Jackie Selebi to investigate the messages, but Selebi turned him down.
If the ANC inquiry finds that there was a basis for believing the e-mails, his stature could be enhanced. If it confirms Ngcakani’s finding that they were a hoax and that he prematurely associated himself with them, he will suffer heavy political damage.
Before Zuma’s indictment, Motlanthe was seen as a neutral, unifying figure who stood above the battle over the presidential succession.
However, his profile began to shift after he appeared at Zuma’s first court appearance on corruption charges in Durban last year. When the majority of senior ANC leaders denounced the behaviour of Zuma’s supporters, specifically their anti-Mbeki slogans, Motlanthe took a notably softer line. He said the party was in pain and that this was what some supporters were expressing.
At the ANC’s national general council meeting in July last year, Motlanthe allowed discussion on the Zuma-Mbeki feud when the ANC head of presidency, Smuts Ngonyama, and deputy secretary general Sanki Mthembi-Mahanyele had vowed to the media that the national general council was a policy forum where no such discussion would be allowed.
Motlanthe now clearly believes himself to be the target of nameless individuals out to destroy his political credibility. He is said to believe the e-mails are authentic because they suggested planting media smears against him. Soon afterwards, the Sunday Times broke a story implicating him in an allegedly irregular R800-million Land Bank loan to Pamodzi Investment Holdings, in which he and former Northern Cape premier Manne Dipico are minority shareholders.
A public protector investigation has found ”no evidence or information … to substantiate that the bank acted improperly”.
The ANC is also planning a special NEC meeting to discuss the e-mails.