On a November Tuesday, just more than two-and-a-half years from now, Americans will vote for a new president, watched anxiously by the rest of the world.
It is a long way off. There are congressional elections to get through first, later this year, and a new war could have started, perhaps with Iran this time. The United States and the world could have changed out of all recognition.
But the campaign for the 2008 presidential election is already under way. It is being fought out between the lines of countless speeches, behind closed doors in meetings with wealthy sponsors, in otherwise inexplicable visits to remote corners of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the first battlegrounds in the primaries.
It is reflected in the ideological manoeuvrings of the front-runners, who swing around like unwieldy battleships seeking the most advantageous bearings before the shooting starts. And it is popping up on political websites, the new frontier for the stealth campaigns to vacuum up cash and volunteers.
The contest really began as soon as John Kerry admitted defeat on November 3 2004, and the political professionals who make presidential campaigns tick started looking for their next gig. In fact, there is a school of thought that the competition is already half over — the half in question being the Democratic nomination race.
Hillary Clinton is so far ahead of her potential rivals in the polls and in the ”money primary” — the race to corral the financial donors with the deepest pockets — that many observers believe she has built an impregnable position.
On the Republican side, Senator John McCain is the undoubted front-runner, but his chances could evaporate should the two big stars on the Republican firmament decide to enter the race. From New York City, Rudy Giuliani, who impressed many with his steady hand after 9/11, carries great appeal among the ordinary voter. But the Draft Rudy group will have to overcome opposition from the Republican right, which views Giuliani with suspicion for his moderation on abortion. Even so, Giuliani polls highly among Republican voters as leadership candidates, tying with McCain at 20% support.
Both men are outshone, however, by Condoleezza Rice, whose star power as the first African-American woman to serve as Secretary of State can not be denied. McCain may be the Republican front-runner but unlike Clinton, he has still to win over the party activists who view him as an outsider. If Rice is persuaded to enter the contest, despite her insistence she is not interested, all bets are off.
Clinton has risen to a position of Democratic hegemony without ever admitting any interest in occupying the Oval Office. Armed with the ultimate in name recognition, she is too grand to join the ”rubber-chicken” dinners in Iowa or New Hampshire, and has avoided visiting the big primary states.
Raising funds
Instead, she has used her time in Congress to rebrand herself as a flexible centrist always open to bipartisan deals, and a hawk, tougher on Iran than the White House. Under cover of raising funds for her New York Senate re-election campaign this year, she has amassed $20-million — far more than she will need in the absence of any serious opposition.
US election rules allow her to transfer any unspent balance to a war chest for a future presidential bid. The money was raised on the web and by direct mail, from liberal celebrities and $200 at a time from a small army of Clinton fans.
Those rivals are nevertheless waiting on the sidelines for Clinton to stumble, or perhaps for the Democrats to decide that she carries too much baggage inherited from her husband or is too polarising a figure to win over the middle ground, and start looking for someone else to carry their flag.
Mark Warner is first in line to pick it up. The former governor of Virginia is positioning himself as anti-Hillary. He is a new face, unencumbered by past scandals, and with a bland centrist record that is unlikely to scare away undecideds and independents.
He can point to the fact that the only two Democrats to win the presidency in nearly 40 years have been southern governors like himself — Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. He has shown he can win elections in enemy territory, the South, and has proven he can manage an executive role, running a medium-sized state. But he has yet to prove he has the personal charisma to combat Hillary Clinton’s star quality. In recent opinion polls of Democratic voters, Warner is a full 40 percentage points behind her.
There are other governors weighing their chances. Among them is Tom Vilsack, who Kerry once considered as a running mate. He is from Iowa, which will give him home advantage at the state caucuses that will kick off the 2008 primary season. His term expires next year, which will give him a free hand to organise a campaigns.
Evan Bayh, a Senator from Indiana, is also banking on his home-state advantage, offering Democrats an entry into the Republican heartland. The son of a 20-year senator from Indiana, and a former governor of Indiana, Bayh presents a centrist image similar to Warner’s. During his eight years as Indiana governor, he did not raise taxes, but he also expanded college scholarship opportunities for poor families.
As Bayh knows, it is much harder to win the presidency from a Senate seat. Senators do not run anything but spend their careers expressing opinions, any one of which can come back to haunt them in a presidential campaign, as Kerry discovered. Defeat in 2004 has not entirely discouraged Kerry. He has $13-million cash on hand left over from that campaign and continues to harbour hopes of a run in 2008.
But prior defeat works against a candidate. Witness Al Gore, who came even closer to the presidency in 2002 than Kerry did. Gore remains focused for the moment on his fledgling media empire. But he also appears to be enjoying a role as the conscience of the Democratic Left — the anti-Hillary figure speaking out in anger against the war in Iraq and domestic wiretapping.
He has not entirely ruled out a return to politics, but there are other contenders for the role of Democratic conscience considering a run in 2008. Leading the herd is Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin.
Maverick
On the Republican side, McCain is engaged in the first step of what will need to be some very complicated manoeuvring if he is to capture the nomination and prevail in 2008: an early shift to the right to appeal to party activists following by a tack to the middle ground ahead of the general elections.
McCain has been working hard to shed his image as a maverick, defending President George Bush and courting the religious right. The tactic seems to be paying off, with a growing section of Republicans now believing that he may be the only one capable of fighting off Clinton.
But his early start has not extinguished the hopes of other Republicans. The Tennessean Bill Frist, despite an unillustrious career as Senate majority leader, has been running for president ever since he got a higher share of the popular vote in the 2000 election than his fellow native son Gore.
Meanwhile, Senator George Allen, who is also seeking re-election to his seat in Virginia next November, got a jump-start in the campaign by firing the first Republican salvo against the deal to sell operational management of US ports to a Dubai-based firm. The son of a legendary football coach, Allen is viewed as the ideological heir of Ronald Reagan but he has the campaign skills of Bill Clinton. On the issues that get out the Republican vote, such as abortion, he stands to the right of Bush.
On the opposite wing of the party, the Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel has been staking out his territory as a steadier McCain. A Vietnam War hero, in August last year he became the first Republican senator to call for a withdrawal of US troops for Iraq.
Also hoping to appeal to the middle ground is Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. Romney, a Mormon and the son of a former governor of Michigan and one-time presidential candidate, was the venture capitalist who saved the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics from financial disaster. As a Republican governor of a state with a proudly Democratic tradition, Romney last week signed a law that would make Massachusetts the first state to require universal health insurance. He is against same-sex marriage, and he is sufficiently pro-business to allay Republican unease.
Possible contenders
Democrats
Evan Bayh, 51
Background: Son of leading liberal light senator Birch Bayh. Governor of Indiana 1988-1998. Elected senator for Indiana in 1998
Strengths: Electability in Republican heartland. Political pedigree gives him edge. Democrat warrior who takes tough stand on Iran
Weaknesses: Being hard-line on Iran is risky
Chances: Shares distant second with Warner, and strong pick for vice-president by Clinton
Mark Warner, 51
Background: Governor of Virginia: 2001-2005
Strengths: Appeal to the south and independent voters, and reputation for good management. As governor of conservative Virginia, his approval ratings hovered above 70%
Weaknesses: One-term governor (because of term limits) who raised taxes
Chances: Democrats love a southern governor. Shares a distant second place with Bayh
Tom Vilsack, 55
Background: Governor of Iowa since 1998
Strengths: Heartland appeal. Considered by John Kerry as a potential running mate in 2004. Since becoming governor, Democrats have increased standing in Iowa state legislature.
Weaknesses: Lacks the organising and fund-raising network. Charisma deficit
Chances: Still not seen in the top tier, but it is early days
Al Gore, 58
Background: Vice-president 1992-2000. Won popular vote in 2000 elections
Strengths: The natural beneficiary of anti-Bush, anti-war sentiment
Weaknesses: Retro feel to his candidacy
Chances: No sign that he is running in 2008
Republicans
Mitt Romney, 59
Background: Mormon, son of former governor of Michigan. Governor of Massachusetts since 2002
Strengths: Governor of a state with strong Democratic leanings. Strong appeal to conservatives after vetoed morning after pill.
Weaknesses: Sinking popularity in home state
Chances: Was tipped as man to watch in 2004 but has failed to fulfil that promise
Condoleezza Rice, 51
Background: Strong academic career. National security adviser in Bush’s first term, appointed secretary of state in January 2005
Strengths: Star power. Foreign policy credentials. Though not an official candidate, she is the most popular figure among Republicans
Weaknesses: Has never stood for election. Chances: Fantasy candidate in Hillary vs Condi match-up; being urged to run by Laura Bush
John McCain, 69
Background: Grandson and son of navy admirals, spent more than five years as POW in Vietnam. Elected senator for Arizona in 1986
Strengths: Strong appeal to independents for his moderate views on social issues. War hero
Weaknesses: In November 2008, he will be 72. Distrusted by Republican base
Chances: First out of the gates and current frontrunner, polling at 20% among Republicans
George Allen, 54
Background: Son of legendary football coach. Served in Virginia state legislature and House of Representatives and as state governor before being elected to US Senate in 2000
Strengths: Proven track record on campaign trail. Conservative credentials would carry right
Weaknesses: Facing tough fight for re-election to Senate seat in 2006
Chances: Conservative alternative to McCain
Chuck Hagel, 59
Background: Awarded Purple Heart for service in Vietnam War, elected to the US Senate in 1996
Strengths: Strong record as senator. Established distance from unpopular White House by coming out against Iraq war and wiretapping
Weaknesses: Viewed as a maverick by Republican machine
Chances: Tough fight against conservatives to win nomination
— Guardian Unlimited Â